Around 15% of voters say they are still undecided. Which way are they leaning, asks @TomHCalver ? pic.twitter.com/Onyt3QB6KH

— The Times and The Sunday Times (@thetimes) June 17, 2024

Around 15% of voters are still undecided. Which way are they leaning?

For months there was an assumption that these undecided voters – of which plenty voted Tory in 2019 – would lean Tory again

Yet @Survation's latest MRP suggests when pressed, they're breaking for Labour pic.twitter.com/NrYOYdxMbm

— Tom Calver (@TomHCalver) June 17, 2024

As Tom Calver observes the assumptions for months, if not years, was that undecided voters would break for the Tories but that hasn’t happened so far. Based on an overall sample size of 42,269 the margin of error on this ‘subsample’ of 2,843 undecided voter is quite low, it’s not like a Scottish subsample of 42 people in Inverkeithing.

The only kernel of good news for the Tories is that there is 43% of the undecideds are still undecided so they could break disproportionately for the Tories but I wouldn’t bet on it the way the campaign has gone so far.

TSE