So for a bit of fun, I decided to look at the Survation MRP polling conducted between 31^st May and 13^th June. This showed that all but 72 Tory MPs would lose their seats and I wondered what the make up of the Tory party would look like after the election if this prediction came true.

Below are listed the 72 MPs who Survation suggest will survive the Great Cull of 2024. They are listed from largest lead to smallest in % terms. Poor old Alan Mak at the bottom only has a 0.03% lead over his Labour rival but, on this prediction at least, he will do better than the vast majority of his former colleagues. Joy Morrissey in Beaconsfield has the largest % lead over her next placed rival at 18.66%.

Those listed in bold are former MPs. Many of the boundaries have changed but most of the MPs have some connection with their former constituencies. Those marked with an asterisk have jumped from other unrelated constituencies. Those not in bold are new candidates entirely. If Survation are right then there will be 11 of these in the rump Tory party.

I have posted this up mostly as a stimulus for discussion. I realise that this may become irrelevant as soon as the next MRP poll is released which may be over the next couple of days (I think I was polled for one by Yougov a couple of days ago) But I thought it might at least give some idea of who is likely to be left to form a new Parliamentary party and what that might say about the direction the post cull Tories might take.

Richard Tyndall