The Tories are unlikely to attract many Reform UK voters given…

– Only 36% would vote Tory if a Reform UK candidate wasn't standing
– 61% are voting Reform despite thinking they won't win in their seat
– 75% say the Tories and Labour are as bad as each other
– 74-76%… pic.twitter.com/P7UpQvMAfJ

— YouGov (@YouGov) June 15, 2024

The key finding for me is ’74-76% dislike Rishi Sunak and the party’ which means it is very stupid to start sticking the Reform vote share to the Tory vote share.

Under first past the post when you’re opponents are divided you do well, I suggest this is good news for Labour and the Lib Dems and is impacting my betting strategies.

TSE