Political earthquakes are infrequent, but they do happen.

In 2015, in Scotland, the SNP swept the board, taking 56 of the 59 seats on offer. Labour – once dominant – dropped from 41 seats to just a single one, despite winning almost a quarter of the vote. First Past the Post can be cruel.

In Canada, in 1993, the Progressive Conservatives contrived to lose 154 of their 156 seats. They went from government to fifth place, dropping behind not just the Liberals and the upstart Reform but the Bloc Quebecois and the New Democrat Party.

There are parallels with both elections in the UK: you can cast Reform in the role of the SNP, as the standard bearers for Leave. Alternatively, the UK Reform is the new … errr … Canadian Reform, outflanking the Conservatives on the Right.

With Farage the face of Reform, and with Sunak drowning, it is not inconceivable Reform could surpass the Conservative vote share.

And it is worth remembering just how many people the Conservative Government has managed to piss off: those in the Red Wall who wanted Levelling Up… Didn’t happen. Those who voted Conservative because of concerns about immigration and a desire to finally Brexit… and immigration is now topping levels seen when we were in the EU. Those who voted Conservative because of a basic desire for competent government, and sound finances.. errrr. Really, unless you are an immigration loving pensioner who owns their own home, and whose children left long ago, then it’s hard to work our what Sunak’s Conservatives have done for you.

(By contrast, John Major – who got an absolute shellacking in 1997 – at least bequeathed a booming economy, a balanced budget, and the beginnings of peace in Northern Ireland.)

If Reform’s vote share exceeds the Conservatives, what happens? Well, let’s start with the blatantly obvious: Labour wins an absolutely massive majority. The major beneficiaries of a Split Right are the Left.

The odds already assume the Conservatives will lose 200+ seats.

But there is one bet which looks like it might be value: most seats without Labour, where you can get 13-1 on Reform with Betfair.

Those are decent odds, and I shall be putting a small sum on.

(Interestingly, in Canada in 1993, Reform only got slightly more votes than the Progressive Conservatives – 18.7% vs 16.0%. But that led to a 25x difference in seats won. It’s not impossible we could see something similar this time around.)

Robert