2019 wasn’t all bad for the Lib Dems. Yes, they won just 8 seats and lost their leader. Which was pretty poor. But the vote became much targeted. The Lib Dems gained more than doubled their number of second place seats (from 38 to 94).

A lot of these were fairly winnable, with 30 seats being theirs on a single digit swing (at least under the boundaries at the time). Even more encouragingly, 24 of those 30 seats (and 29 of the 32 others which would fall on a 10-15% swing), the party would be targeting the Tories.

The Case for the Attack

And there are reasons to believe sweeping gains are possible. The Lib Dems have already made gains with some very big swings at recent by-elections. Tiverton and Honiton (29.9%) and North Shropshire (34.2%!) were the kind of performances the party forgot were possible from 2010-2020. Perhaps the party is finally past Coalition.

Secondly, local elections have shown left-wing tactical voting is back on the agenda. Take London for one example. In the First Past the Post ballot for the London Assembly the Lib Dems won the South West seat with 32.6% of the vote. On the same day, for the same role, the same voters on the PR List ballot voted Labour in 1^st place and the Lib Dems got just 23.2%. And only 12.4% of those voters backed the Lib Dem candidate for Mayor. That’s a lot of split tickets.

Suddenly, those single digit swing targets look almost easy. And the 10-15% swings look pretty plausible too in many areas. Perhaps 50 or more gains are on the cards.

The Case for the Defence

In many ways this election is looking more like 1997 every day, especially for the Lib Dems. Back in 1997 the party lost votes (18% to 17%) but gained 28 new MPs, bringing the party to 46. Which was pretty good. But not as good as the party hoped.

What went wrong in 1997 was that tactical voting had a fairly modest ceiling. In a lot of seats the Lib Dems could have won they instead fell short with Labour making big advances back in third place. A few seats saw Labour win from third, but many more saw anti-Tory voters back Blair despite their local tactical incentives.

In seats like Teignbridge, where the Lib Dems started on almost three times Labour’s vote share, Labour still made more gains than them. And the Tories held on by a thread while Labour ‘wasted’ 18% of the voters. The same thing happened in Wells, West Dorset, Eastbourne, and many others. In some, like Eastbourne, the Lib Dems went backwards despite starting in clear second place.

There are good reasons to believe this will happen again. For starters so-called ‘Blue Wall’ polls literally show Labour leapfrogging the party overall in these areas. While the Lib Dems will hope to show strength in places they were close second before I suspect they will struggle beyond that.

There are other reasons for concern in specific seats. For example two of the 24 ‘easy targets’ may have the Lib Dems within striking distance of winning, but they actually have the party in 3^rd behind Labour. I’d be surprised if Finchley & Golders Green or Cities of London & Westminster went orange on election day.

I Walk The Line

This is the logic behind other MRPs and forecasts which have the Lib Dems making surprisingly few gains despite everything. For example, The Economist’s forecast has the party’s central forecast at 22 (though with a long tail of better outcomes possible).

I’m not quite that pessimistic, but I think it’s closer than 64 which The New Statesman is forecasting. Voters have delivered extraordinary tactical behaviour at by-elections for the party, but at a general I think that will be much more modest. You can make a good argument for either scenario, though.

The bookies have gone pretty bullish on Lib Dem prospects, setting their over/under in the high 30s or even low 40s. While odds are shifting rapidly, I’ve taken some bets on them falling short. I’d see value in StarSports (Under 40.5, 11/10) SkyBet (Under 40.5, Evens), Bet365 (Under 38.5, Evens), Ladbrokes (Under 40.5, 5/6), William Hill (Under 38.5, 10/11), and Paddy Power (Under 40.5, 5/6) among others.

*(I’d recommend the very detailed and interesting Party Report on the 2019 election, for a much more comprehensive opinion on what went right and wrong.)

Pip Moss

Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. He has bets on the Lib Dems to win under 38.5 and 40.5 seats at odds ranging from evens to 6/5. All odds quoted correct as of 8:30pm Friday 31 May. You can follow him on Twitter at @PipsFunFacts and BlueSky at @Quincel.Bsky.Social