Interestingly I don’t think this is the case now. Modelling here at @focaldataHQ suggests more modest Labour lead of 5-7% is enough for a majority. Now apparently called the “Election cat” @Psythor https://t.co/P0BrjreStY pic.twitter.com/uSrXd7IlMx

— James Kanagasooriam (@JamesKanag) May 22, 2024

One of things that has a profound impact on betting is what percentage lead do Labour need to win a majority. After the last election the consensus was that Labour needed a lead of around 12% to win a majority of 2 at this election but things have changed.

The SNP implosion in North Britain has helped Labour’s vote more efficient, the Tory implosion, and return of anti-Tory tactical vote are several reasons why I expect Labour’s vote to be the most efficient in nineteen years as the tweet above implies.

We’ve been here before, back in 2015 it was felt by many that David Cameron needed a lead of 10% to get a majority of 2 but thanks to Dave’s brilliance he won a majority with a popular vote lead of 6.5%.

My own hunch is that Labour win a decent majority with a 8% lead and move into landslide territory with leads of 10% or more and that underpins my betting strategy.

TSE