Sadiq Khan leads Susan Hall by 13%.

London Mayoral Election VI (6-8 April):

Sadiq Khan (Lab) 43%
Susan Hall (Cons) 30%
Zoë Garbett (Green) 10%
Rob Blackie (Lib Dem) 8%
Howard Cox (Reform) 7%
Other 2%https://t.co/NME7rUhyXG pic.twitter.com/pecj5rELrF

— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) April 11, 2024

Back in 2021 the final Redfield & Wilton poll for the London Mayoral election had Sadiq Khan leading Shaun Bailey, the Tory candidate, by 21% in the first round, Khan’s actual lead in the first round was fewer than 5%.

If we have a similar polling failure and with a bit of differential turnout due to Sadiq Khan being the incumbent and people thinking Labour are going to win we could see an upset thanks to the government changing the voting system for this election to a first past the post election from the much superior supplementary vote system.

Although this poll might prove beneficial for Sadiq Khan as the Lib Dems and Greens could be pressured to vote Labour lest they let in Trump an Truss supporter Susan Hall.

If the Lib Dems and Green split the vote and let Susan Hall win then the fury and the wrath of Khan and his supporters could provide an unlimited power source to sort out the energy problems for the planet for the next million years.

I still think Khan will win but it might be time for a value bet on Hall in anticipation of an outlier poll.

TSE