… the main reason for my new scepticism about massive Con losses is that while as shorthand it's acceptable to say the seats were last fought at the Tory high tide of 2021, that is a simplification. A third of the seats up in May were last fought in 2019, 2022 or 2023… 2/5

— Lewis Baston (@lewis_baston) April 1, 2024

… precise figures will vary but I make it 963 Con defences, of which 705 are from 2021. To lose 480-odd seats in total requires a loss rate of around 60 per cent from 2021, I think, which requires the Tories to do significantly worse than they did in 2023… 4/5

— Lewis Baston (@lewis_baston) April 1, 2024

(Seat gains/ losses are a bad way of measuring local election performance. Part of the reason is stuff like this, part also the different ways of accounting for boundary changes, by-elections, defections etc. Technical details available if people interested) 6/5

— Lewis Baston (@lewis_baston) April 1, 2024

I agree. I don't think Tories are as toxic in Local government as they are in Westminster, so their losses may not be too extreme.

It may create some false hope for Sunak though.

— Foxy (@foxinsoxuk) April 1, 2024