Reform UK reach another highest ever result in our voting intention this week, rising 1pt to 16%

Con: 21% (+2 from 19-20 Mar)
Lab: 40% (-4)
Reform UK: 16% (+1)
Lib Dem: 10% (+1)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)https://t.co/mp0waUzBGD pic.twitter.com/6m0U6K6Rot

— YouGov (@YouGov) March 28, 2024

Every poll seems to bring a new a record breaking poll for Reform and Ladbrokes have a market on whether YouGov will have a poll reaching the apotheosis of outpolling the the Tories before the general election.

I can see it happening in a very narrow window after the Tories get gubbed in the locals and there’s a vote of confidence in Sunak and the Tories commit their regular bout of seppuku however as Ladbrokes are not offering both sides of the bet so this is a market to avoid.

I can see Reform outpolling the Tories happening with other BPC pollsters such Ipsos whose polls can be produce an odd outlier with their strict turnout filter or with one of the newer untested pollsters.

TSE