Jessica: You look at the exits for GOP voters tonight who won't guarantee their vote for the nominee. North Carolina, 35%, Virginia 36%, California 33%. That has been consistent, 30-50% of people who don't want Trump but identify as Republican or are voting in that primary pic.twitter.com/0e9GMBDFdn

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 6, 2024

The most interesting thing to emerge from Super Tuesday, even more so than Trump losing Vermont and Biden losing American Samoa, are the stats in the Tweets above.

For a long time on both sides of the Atlantic we have seen headline voting intention figures which have proven inaccurate at an election but the supplementaries indicated why the headline voting intentions were wrong and I wonder if we’re about to see that phenomena occur again in November.

Just look at those Republicans who are unsure/unlikely to vote Trump in November, if that is accurate (or even half way accurate) then Biden wins the election and Trump loses bigly.

If the overwhelming majority of unsure Republicans do hold their noses and vote Trump in November then Trump wins I expect.

My hunch is plenty will hold their noses and vote Trump but not enough to help him win in November.

TSE