Sir Graham Brady’s postie may get a hernia in the next few days
What is most striking is that three out of four worst Tory by election defeats to Labour since 1945 have come in the last year under Sunak’s leadership, at some point Tory MPs will be thinking even a tub of lard, a lettuce, or Liz Truss would do a better job than Sunak.
I suspect a significant body of Tory MPs will think the way to salvation is chasing the 13% of Reform voters which will be a mistake.
The main betting hot take, lay a May election, yesterday’s recession news and these by-elections ensure the May election will not happen, the plans for a tax cutting budget next month are now in abeyance.
TSE