If you thought things couldn't get any worse for Labour in Rochdale, a friend messaged me: "In a dark omen, the sewage pipes burst in the Rochdale Labour campaign office yesterday, and the whole downstairs is covered with the proverbial."

— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) February 12, 2024

We have two by-elections this week in which the government are likely to get gubbed but the major focus has been on the Rochdale by-election which takes place at the end of the month.

The Labour candidate has had support from the Labour party withdrawn due to his past comments on the events in the Middle East. It may seem rather quaint that a by-election in this country is being impacted because of a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing but this is actually a tradition in this country that goes back nearly a century.

In 1938 the Oxford and Bridgwater by-elections became dominated by an invasion of another country not involving the United Kingdom and became de facto referendums on one of the major party leaders. Sound familiar?

Following the the recent events George Galloway has become the favourite on Betfair under the guise of his Workers Party of Britain banner.

I still think Labour will win the by-election based on the Neale Hanvey precedent, the then SNP candidate who was suspended before the 2019 general election over alleged antisemitism but still won the seat at the general election.

I suspect the value might be with the Lib Dems here, who held this seat for 25 years between 1972 and 1997, but I won’t be laying anybody in this market as I can see anybody winning this by-election on a low share of the vote on a low turnout and the quite ghastly assorted of candidates standing here.

The Green candidate has been disowned by the Green party for past comments that were seen as Islamophobic.

We have two former Labour MPs standing in this by-election, first is Simon Danczuk (and former MP for Rochdale) who is standing for Reform and has also been suspended for sending explicit messages to a 17-year-old girl.

The second former Labour MP standing is George Galloway and he needs no introduction.

I know this sounds catty but the thought of George Galloway becoming an MP again fills me with a dread that is only matched by when my other half asks to use my mobile phone. If Galloway wins I will not salute his courage, his strength, his indefatigability,

I am not sure what the people of Rochdale have done to deserve such candidates. I hope this doesn’t become as notorious as the Smethwick or the Bermondsey by-elections.

TSE