Thanks to bondegezou for posting this link on the previous thread about Scottish independence which found
- These Islands polling has found that 76% of SNP supporters believe that “Scotland sends more to Westminster than it gets back in public spending” and that they consider this claim to be very important to their constitutional view.
- Unless reserved spending which takes place in Scotland – that is spending on things like pensions and Network Rail – doesn’t count as Scotland “getting back” public spending, this statement is simply not true.
- This false grievance is highly significant in the context of the independence debate because, were Scotland to separate from the UK, the likely consequences for tax rates and levels of public spending are obvious.
- When we asked voters how they would vote in an independence referendum if separating from the UK would lead to them having to pay significantly higher taxes and/or would result in lower public spending in Scotland, support for independence dropped from 40% to just 27% – 31% .
If we do have a independence referendum soon then the Unionist side know what they have to do help them win again.
My expectation is that we won’t be having an independence referendum soon, as I expect Humza Yousaf’s strategy for the next election is flawed on a few levels. If the SNP (and other independence parties) fail to win a majority of Scottish seats at the next UK wide general election that will put the issue into medium term future as I don’t think we will see a trigger event for Indyref2 to happen until the 2030s despite what the SNP say.
Tis is why I am not betting any money on the outcome of a Section 30 authorised Indyref2, as I don’t fancy tying up my money for a long time, I have dabbled on whether there will be a Section 30 authorised Indyref2 before certain dates by X date.