There are either 12 or perhaps fewer months to the General Election, and the Labour lead in the polls seems solidly in the mid to high teens. The recent Autumn Statement seems to be having no real effect on that lead. Is it possible for the Tories to close that gap? One possibility mooted is that Reform Party (REFUK) voters will switch to the Conservatives when that GE focuses minds. It does seem as if REFUKs predecessor The Brexit Party voters did at GE 2019, and the Brexit Party did stood aside in Conservative seats, so an area worth exploring.

Initially we need to understand how many of these REFUK voters actually exist. Pollsters vary in how they report the party, but generally these are in the range 3-11%, so a significant chunk of the electorate. There has been a suggestion that this figure is inflated by over representation on online pollsters panels, as discussed in this excellent article:

Certainly the lack of performance REFUK candidates in the byelections and local elections supports this view. Alastair Meeks summarises this eloquently here:

YouGov have also done some interesting more detailed polling on REFUK voters, summarised in these tweets:

REFUK have announced that they plan to run in all seats this time, unlike their predecessor the Brexit Party in 2019, but REFUK voters are mostly realistic about the party’s prospects:

Nor are the majority of Reform UK voters in any doubt about the likelihood that the party would win in their constituency at the coming election – 67% say it is unlikely, only 18% think it is likelyhttps://t.co/1m4ySxyHAk pic.twitter.com/MAIgTixH5o

— YouGov (@YouGov) November 2, 2023

But if REFUK were not standing only 31% would switch to the Conservatives, though vanishingly few to other parties. Most are “Don’t Know” or “Will  not Vote”.

Only 31% of those who currently intend to vote Reform UK say they would back the Tories if RUK didn't stand in their constituency.

Even among those Reform UKers who voted Tory in 2019 that figure is only 37%https://t.co/1m4ySxyHAk pic.twitter.com/KZSm9VHHap

— YouGov (@YouGov) November 2, 2023

It does seem as if these REFUK voters in 2023 are different to Brexit Party voters in 2019, being much less kindly disposed to the Conservative Party or its leader.

For those intending to vote for the Brexit Party in 2019, 59% had a favourable view of the Conservative party, and 84% a positive opinion of Boris Johnson

Now, only 21% have a favourable view of the Tories, and the same number for Rishi Sunakhttps://t.co/1m4ySxyHAk pic.twitter.com/eOittpR7nE

— YouGov (@YouGov) November 2, 2023

Quite why these REFUK voters dislike Sunak so much is unclear. Is it because they have a Nadine-like unrequited love for Boris Johnson and despise Sunak for his role in deposing their idol?, or is it something else? Certainly REFUK polling had a noticeable and sustained uptick after the defenestration of Ms Truss.

My conclusion is that the REFUK vote is smaller than online pollsters find, as antipathetic to Sunak as Corbynites are to Starmer. Most will stick with REFUK and only a third to a half will be willing to vote Conservative on GE day. There is likely to be a modest boost to the Con vote share of perhaps 2% from this source. This is not enough to close the gap, nor an easy group to win over for Britain’s first Prime Minister of Indian ethnicity. He needs to look elsewhere for votes.

Foxy