Have we seen peak SNP?
Today’s Sunday Times is reporting that
The SNP is running out of cash following an exodus of 30,000 members and the unexpected legal costs linked to the continuing police investigation into the party’s funding, its ruling council has been told.
Colin Beattie, the SNP treasurer, told the national executive committee (NEC) that the party was “having difficulty in balancing the books due to the reduction in membership and donors” and that fighting a potential by-election in Rutherglen & Hamilton West would “put the party under pressure”.
He added: “We need to find money to keep the party going forward or we’ll keep cutting our tail until there’s nothing left.”
A meeting of senior party figures was told that the police investigation into the alleged missing £600,000 of money raised for a second independence referendum campaign is further draining funds already depleted by the slump in membership and donations in recent years under the leadership of Nicola Sturgeon.
The downbeat message was echoed by Humza Yousaf, the first minister, who told the meeting that the SNP needed “significant donors and a fundraising drive” just to pay for any upcoming by-election contest that may be triggered by a recall petition after Margaret Ferrier, the former nationalist MP, was found to have broken Covid rules.….
…According to a party source who attended the meeting, Beattie told the NEC that there had been “huge increases in base costs” in the SNP with extra money having to be found to pay for the police investigation.
He said that there was a “difficulty in balancing the books due to the reduction in membership and donors”.
Recent events in Scotland really have been suboptimal for the SNP with the carry on campervan being another lowpoint but it is having a real impact other than giving opponents of the SNP great amusement, it is leading to an existential crisis.
The auditor issue could see the SNP lose over one million pounds in funding in Short money, coupled with the problems identified by Colin Beattie then there is a scenario where the SNP can no longer operate as a political party.
Whilst we might be seeing peak SNP I’m not sure we’ve seen peak Scottish Nationalism, since 2014 there’s roughly at least 45% support for Scottish independence in the polls, nature abhors a vacuum, so if the SNP isn’t the vehicle for Scottish independence, something else will fill that vacuum.
Alex Salmond’s ratings, where the polls showed he was even less popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, make a Salmond led Alba the replacement for the SNP very unlikely, the Scottish Greens are too niche, so I wonder if the remnants of the SNP will form a new party, the equivalent of pre-pack administration for political parties.
With a UK wide general election in the next 18 months or so, which originally was going to be a de facto referendum on Scottish independence, so these financial issues have come at the worst time in electoral cycle for the SNP.
I’d love to see a betting market on some other party other than the SNP/Labour/Tories/Lib Dems/Alba/Greens winning the most seats in Scotland at the next general election.
TSE