I like this market from Smarkets as most of the markets on the confidence vote are if/when it takes place or on the binary outcome of the vote but this on the vote margin.
Whilst it seems inevitable that a vote will be triggered this month (maybe as early as tomorrow) or later on this month if the Tories lose both by elections I wonder if Tory MPs might delay the vote until after the Committee of Privileges has reported on whether the Prime Minister deliberately misled the House.
Right now I think if there’s a vote of confidence triggered in Boris Johnson this month he will win it with a lower percentage than the 63% Theresa May achieved in 2018 but that would keep Boris Johnson in office, if not power.
If Boris Johnson wins the confidence vote and then the Committee of Privileges later on this year concludes Boris Johnson deliberately misled the House then Boris Johnson would be safe from another confidence vote for a period of twelve months from the last confidence vote.
So if there confidence vote is held later in the year I conclude the value lies in the Johnson loses by 0 – 50 and 50 – 100 bands.