The polling that should scare Sunak and every Tory
This finding by YouGov about consumer confidence falling to an all time low in this near decade long series is quite illuminating. Consumer confidence is much lower now that any time since the start of the pandemic. Many of us have been saying for a while that the cost of living crisis, something that is going to get much worse, will be very damaging to Tories, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak in particular.
YouGov note
The cost of living crisis has had a devastating impact on consumer confidence, according to the latest analysis from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
If last month saw the first whispers of discontent, this month the public are in much fuller voice: soaring energy bills have taken the overall index from 109.0 to 106.6 – a fall of -2.4 points, and one that can be significantly attributed to a catastrophic decline in household finance measures. While consumer confidence scores are still positive, they are propped up to an extent by stronger performance in the home value, job security, and retrospective business indices.
YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents answer questions about household finances, property prices, job security, and business activity, both over the past 30 days and looking ahead to the next 12 months.
Each month we ask Britons about whether their household finances have improved or worsened over the past 30 days, and whether they expect their household finances to improve or worsen over the next 12 months. With retrospective scores plummeting to 71.5 (-9.2), and outlook plunging to 59.7 (-19.3), both household finance measures saw the lowest scores in the near-decade-long history of the Consumer Confidence Index. As sanctions related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drive gas prices to record highs – and as April’s 54% increase to the energy price cap draws closer – these unprecedentedly negative attitudes could yet get worse.
With the economy and personal finances of the voters heading south then my expectation is that Rishi Sunak’s leadership will falter even before he confirmed he’s the Indian heritage David Miliband.
For Tories hoping that even if the economy performs badly we could see a 1992 general election redux in 2024 but the leadership approval ratings aren’t as good for Boris Johnson as they were for Sir John Major over Neil Kinnock respectively, in fact with the gold standard pollster for leader ratings, Sir Keir Starmer comfortably leads Boris Johnson on the satisfaction ratings, both on the net scores and gross positives.
As an aside, based on the economic headwinds, the betting market from Smarkets on the UK’s CPI to hit 7.5% by July looks like a good bet. January’s CPI was 4.9% and I’d expect February’s figure, released on the 23rd of this month by the unimpeachably gold standard ONS, will be higher than 4.9%.
TSE