Chart Smarkets

Of all the big political events coming up in the run up to Christmas and beyond the biggest for the UK surely is whether there will there be a deal with the EU. If agreement is not reached by the end of the month then the UK will be leaving without a deal and all the associated challenges that creates and worries about the supply chain of things that we rely on that come from Europe.

But if the Smarkets market is a good guide punters appear pretty certain that in the end Johnson will agree a deal. But he’s got big problems because his party remains as totally split on Brexit as it has been for many years on the manner of the departure. This is something that MPs have very strong opinions about.

Starmer has indicated that LAB would back what Johnson agrees to if indeed there is a deal so that relieves that some of the Commons pressure. It does, however expose the issue of the divide within the Tory Party.

This is not a market I have actually bet upon because I don’t think the odds are attractive either way.

The thing that I found most interesting in the past few days is how other countries within the EU are worried that Barnier night concede too much.

The biggest issues are well known – UK fishing rights and whether in its post EU existence the UK will follow the sort of industrial support regime that exists within the EU..

My guess is that some wording will be found to deal with each of these huge problems but we cannot be absolutely certain.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.