I’m very intrigued by this analysis by the New York Times, as seen in the tweets above, it probably explains the current prices on Betfair where Trump is very close to Biden.

There’s always a danger of refighting the last war, as Elliott Morris acknowledges, but in 2012 the RCP nationwide polling average had Obama winning by 0.7% when in reality he ended up winning by 3.9%, if we see that kind of error then Biden’s looking at something close to a landslide in the electoral college.

All this uncertainty on the polling could be minimised if America had the equivalent of the British Polling Council, so we could see the questions and methodologies the American pollsters use to help determine if we’re headed for another polling disaster, and which way.

TSE