Ladbrokes have finally put up their next out of the cabinet market and to be honest there’s no value in backing Robert Jenrick. It truly is shameful how shameless Robert Jenrick and the Prime Minister are over this scandal. If Robert Jenrick was a humble councillor he’d had been forced out and facing much worse.
So if not Jenrick then who? I’m wondering whether to place my money on the Frank Spencer tribute act Gavin Williamson. Given how badly he has organised the return to school plans which doesn’t inspire confidence for everything to be fine by September. Whilst Jenrick’s shocking behaviour doesn’t directly impact the average voter the failure to properly reopen the school certainly impacts significant numbers of voters.
If Gavin Williamson messes up the return to school you can see that being a tipping point for Boris Johnson as it would ruin the narrative that the Prime Minister is trying to sell the country that the country is bouncing back from Covid-19.
You could argue that Liz Truss might resign if we get a sub optimal trade deal for farmers and consumers, given her pronouncements this week, but this is a market I’m not going to get heavily involved with. Firstly the dead heat rules could wipe out the value of the bet. Additionally the usual rules of political gravity seem not to apply to cabinet ministers and their advisers which is something that will eventually catch up with the government, I’m just not sure when though.