Ladbrokes have this market on the correct finishing order in the Labour leadership market after the final round.

This is a leaked private poll, so usual caveats should be applied. But it would take a very big swing for it even to be close for 2nd, so unless this is a total fabrication, something is afoot.

— Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) February 22, 2020

The tweets by Matt Singh indicate that Rebecca Long Bailey is going to finish last but I’m always dubious when people talk about private polls and do not publish the polling tables.

At 2/1, Starmer first, Nandy second, and Long Bailey third, it’s not exactly stellar odds when you remember the last public poll had Long Bailey in second place 25% ahead of Lisa Nandy.

I’m not confident in playing this 3-2-1 market, any prediction I make will likely end up in the dusty bin of bad tips. With Labour leadership elections conducted under the alternative vote system makes it harder to predict this market than a straight forward, but hugely flawed, first past the post election.

So I will not be playing this market, perhaps PBers can spot some value in this market, if you can, let me know.

TSE