Betdata.io chart of Betfair exchange
Given the proximity of the general election there’s increasing interest in the next LAB leader betting where Sir Keir Starmer favourite status is hardening up as seen in the chart. If LAB does lose, as the polls currently indicate, on December 12th and a LAB leadership contest starts soon afterwards then he looks as though he’s in a good starting position.
Assuming LAB gets defeated then this will be its fourth successive general election setback and my guess is that perceived electability rather than ideological positioning will be the key factor in choosing a successor.
Starmer, the former Director of Public Prosecutions won’t thank me for describing him as a “new Blair” but he does look credible from an electoral standpoint and might be the choice to lead assuming that the party is in opposition once again.
He’d also be a formidable LOTO for Johnson to have to face each Wednesday and he’s shown his political prowess being part of the current LAB leadership though staying distinct from Corbyn.
His big problem is his gender giving the quite widespread desire within the movement for the next leader to be a woman.