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Month: November 2019

Johnson starts debate day with punters rating his chances of a majority at 66%

Johnson starts debate day with punters rating his chances of a majority at 66%

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My betting strategy for tonight One thing’s for sure – tonight’s debate will either confirm or raise doubts about Johnson’s chances of leading his party to an overall majority on December 12th. There will be a lot of betting on this market tonight. The Tory record with debates is not that strong. Cameron was taken aback by Nick Clegg being deemed to “winner” of the first TV debate in April 2010 and this prompted the betting market to mark down…

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Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake

Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake

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Great thread from the New Stateman’s Stephen Bush Two. Ignore everything you think about the candidates and their abilities: head-to-head is harder for the incumbent PM, because they are the only one with a record to defend. https://t.co/7VWTL4KXWF — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) November 18, 2019 Four. Even if form goes out the window and Johnson wins, the event itself is a big "Lib Dems CAN'T win here!" klaxon which from the polls is not a great message for Johnson to…

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A 14% CON lead would give Johnson the margin to stuff the ERG

A 14% CON lead would give Johnson the margin to stuff the ERG

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Survation. on behalf of Good Morning Britain. 18.11.2019 Details and tables here: https://t.co/4TIUmWqHOe pic.twitter.com/1dLh85npjw — Survation. (@Survation) November 18, 2019 Survation adds to the LDs misery A new poll was published by Survation overnight and as can be seen the Lib Dems are the worst hit down 4 points. This means that the last two polls to be published, Deltapoll is the other one, have had very poor news for Jo swinson’s party. Interestingly these two polls have been from…

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Buttigieg now nine points clear in Iowa

Buttigieg now nine points clear in Iowa

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CNN The big WH2020 news over the weekend was a CNN/Des Moines Register poll showing the 37 year old Mayor Pete surge to take a substantial lead over Biden. Warren and Sanders. What’s significant here is that the pollster Ann Selzer has built up a formidable reputation over the years over the accuracy of her Iowa Caucuses polling. This is a very difficult to poll because it is hard to get a representative sample of the 200k+ Iowans who will…

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The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine what type of Brexit we get, if we get Brexit

The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine what type of Brexit we get, if we get Brexit

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As the late United States President, LBJ once said “Politics is the ability to count”. Currently the polls and the betting markets have a Conservative Majority as the most likely outcome, but these are fallible; the manifestoes are not out yet and the nation may not be comfortable with the idea of a large Tory Majority Gov’t. In this thread I will examine the numerology of the next election working through various scenarios: First up 326 + CON MPs –…

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Looking at the Welsh constituency betting

Looking at the Welsh constituency betting

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This looks like being a volatile election in many areas, but nowhere is that truer than in Wales. Five different parties are currently polling in double digits and none is yet polling above 30%. Current polls suggest that the current distribution of constituencies could be upended. Polling, of course, could still change dramatically before the election actually arrives. Historically, Wales has been dominated by Labour. They have won the most seats in every election since December 1918. At the last…

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The latest Ipsos MORI government satisfaction ratings are worse for the incumbent than Major faced just before Blair’s GE1997 landslide

The latest Ipsos MORI government satisfaction ratings are worse for the incumbent than Major faced just before Blair’s GE1997 landslide

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I was so taken by David Herdson’s observation in the previous thread header about how poor the current Ipsos MORI government satisfaction ratings that I thought I would dig into the pollster’s huge archive to see if there were historical precdents. What’s great about the firm which has been polling UK politics since the 1970s is that it has been asking the same questions in the same format over the decades. You can therefore make comparisons. Going through the the…

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