The big WH2020 news over the weekend was a CNN/Des Moines Register poll showing the 37 year old Mayor Pete surge to take a substantial lead over Biden. Warren and Sanders. What’s significant here is that the pollster Ann Selzer has built up a formidable reputation over the years over the accuracy of her Iowa Caucuses polling.
This is a very difficult to poll because it is hard to get a representative sample of the 200k+ Iowans who will turn out on a cold February Monday night to participate in the candidate selection process. Selzer seems to have an approach that has worked in the past.
But Buttigieg might be riding high now but his victory is in no way a certainty. There’s a long way to go before the Caucuses on February 3rd and like other emerging frontrunners, he’s going to face the most intense scrutiny. This week we have the November TV debate and no doubt other contenders are preparing their attacks to undermine the young Mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
The big message coming from the state is that Democrats there are looking for someone of the centre and don’t think a risk should be taken with a nominee articulating the radical policy ideas that we’ve heard from Warren and Sanders. Biden appears to old and for the moment at least Pete appears to be the gainer
What all the contenders who have thrown everything into the first state to decide have gambled on is that the winner on February 3rd will get a boost that could take them a long way towards the nomination.
Whether that’s true or not we will have to see but there is increasing questioning about the hugely powerful role the state plays in the nomination process.
Buttigieg is favourite to win Iowa and third favourite for the nomination.