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Month: November 2019

New constituency poll for LAB-held Great Grimsby looks dire for the incumbent

New constituency poll for LAB-held Great Grimsby looks dire for the incumbent

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NEW: We conducted a telephone method constituency poll on behalf of @TheEconomist in Great Grimsby. Results have now been published and so under @BritPollingCncl rules we are releasing the results and tables. Get the data:https://t.co/MGMPa2op5U pic.twitter.com/zfbawhHIZL — Survation. (@Survation) November 21, 2019 Like all seat polls this has a very small sample (401) but the overall figures look promising for the Tories in one of its key northern targets and bad for LAB. Looking at the detailed data LAB is…

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The November WH2020 Democratic debate and another reminder that they do these things better in the country where Boris was born

The November WH2020 Democratic debate and another reminder that they do these things better in the country where Boris was born

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Biden makes another gaffe so situation normal Overnight we have had the latest Democratic party debate as part of the prolonged process to determine who should fight against Donald Trump in the presidential election next November. The event took place after a weekend that had seen new polling in Iowa and New Hampshire showing the 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar, Pete Buttiegieg, moving to clear leads in Iowa and New Hampshire – the first two states to decide. Their…

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Swinson’s Choice

Swinson’s Choice

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There is an ancient tradition in Britain of beating the bounds, where once a year, various members of the community walk the boundaries of their parish to fix its location and protect it from encroachment. In some cases, they would take boys and whip them, with the intent that such a traumatic event would be fixed in their memory. The general elections of 2015 and 2017 were certainly traumatic events for the Liberal Democrats, and they clearly still weigh heavily…

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Seduced and abandoned. The DUP’s chances in the general election

Seduced and abandoned. The DUP’s chances in the general election

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Even as a famous swordsman, Boris Johnson must be proud of the way that he has so comprehensively screwed the DUP. His Prime Ministership has not so much been a refutation of their strategy as a confutation of the DUP themselves.   The DUP have for many years campaigned as unflinching unionists.  Though they choose to forget the fact now, they campaigned against the Good Friday Agreement as a sell-out. They are not ideologically Conservatives: they are free-spending cultural conservatives of…

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On the betting markets the debate has changed nothing

On the betting markets the debate has changed nothing

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The betdata.io chart shows the last five days on the Betfair exchange and as can be seen there was almost no movement. The Tories are still rated by punters as having a 65% chance of securing a majority. This verdict is very much the same as what many leading commentators are saying but I wonder whether the instant view is correct. In the past the on the night judgements have been less than an accurate guide. One thing we’ve learned…

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Given that Beaconsfield went Remain the odds on the Tory look too short and Grieve too long

Given that Beaconsfield went Remain the odds on the Tory look too short and Grieve too long

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The latest Beaconsfield betting Oddschecker I’m planning a short series of posts on the betting in interesting seats and number one, for me, is Beaconsfield where the former MP and prominent anti-Brexiteer, Dominic Grieve, is trying to hold on. At GE2017 Grieve won with a whopping 65.3% of the vote nearly 44% shead of LAB in second place. Back at the pre-coalition GE2010 the LDs came second with just under 20%. Grieve’s helped by the fact that the LDs have…

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