Browsed by
Month: November 2019

The first sign that Boris Johnson is going to repeat Theresa May’s dire campaign performance at GE2017?

The first sign that Boris Johnson is going to repeat Theresa May’s dire campaign performance at GE2017?

Comments 0 Comment

If these @DeltapollUK ratings are replicated with @IpsosMORI then Boris Johnson is about to repeat Theresa May's cratering of her ratings at GE2017. pic.twitter.com/fJQxWO6Hkx — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 23, 2019 Corbyn reducing the PM’s net approval ratings lead by 23 points in a week is a worrying sign for Boris Johnson. Longstanding readers of PB will know that leadership ratings are a much better predictor of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures, they foretold the unexpected Conservative majorities of…

Read More Read More

Ready for President Chuck Grassley?

Ready for President Chuck Grassley?

Comments 0 Comment

How an 86-year old could be the next US president This has not been a good week for Donald Trump. Rant all he might at the impeachment hearings, they’re turning up deeply damaging testimony that would in any normal circumstance be career-ending. Trump is not, as he’s proven many times, politically normal but even he must have a limit as to how far he can push things. That he will now be impeached is all-but inevitable. Having gone this far…

Read More Read More

Let’s talk landslides

Let’s talk landslides

Comments 0 Comment

Boris might well be on for a 100+ majority Even the balloons looked forlorn and listless; remnants of a celebration party no-one really expected to need and now mockingly reminding the few left of those misplaced hopes, as they swayed aimlessly in unseen aerial eddies. The signs had been there for weeks of course – months, even – but for one reason or another, they’d continuously been ignored. The local government by-elections, the Westminster by-elections, the leader ratings, the constituency…

Read More Read More

Tonight has done nothing to move the GE2019 betting

Tonight has done nothing to move the GE2019 betting

Comments 0 Comment

This was all about reassuring your own party’s supporters I would guess that the vast majority of those who watched the QuestionTime Special had made up their minds about the election before the evening started. But it was an important programme and will almost certainly be the toughest questioning that any of the four will face before December 12th. My view is that this format is better than a debate and for those complaining about a biased audience then who…

Read More Read More

Starting at 7pm the BBC QuestionTime special which sees four party leaders being grilled by the audience

Starting at 7pm the BBC QuestionTime special which sees four party leaders being grilled by the audience

Comments 0 Comment

The running order is: 7pm Corbyn 7.30pm Sturgeon 8pm Swinson 8.30pm Johnson It was at a similar event ahead of GE2017 when I thought TMay lost her majority. It was her “There’s no magic money tree” response to the nurse who had not had a pay rise for several years. I think tonight is going to be challenging for all four of them. My guess is that the second hour will get the biggest audience. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Biden now back as favourite for the Democratic nomination

Biden now back as favourite for the Democratic nomination

Comments 0 Comment

But this is more about Warren-Buttiegieg switching than a Biden Renaissance The betdata.io chart tells the story of the fight for the Democratic nomination over the past few months and tracks the rise and fall of Elizabeth Warren. At one stage the Senator from Massachusetts was rated at more than a 50% chance on Betfair. Her decline was triggered by a forensic attack on her by Mayor Pete in the October TV debate when he pressed on the funding for…

Read More Read More

ALMOST THREE YEARS! We Have Simply Had Enough! Get Back To Work!

ALMOST THREE YEARS! We Have Simply Had Enough! Get Back To Work!

Comments 0 Comment

A1 guest slot by The Green Machine It’s been all three years (since January 2017) that the Northern Ireland government has been in their work place, why? Well, first of all things haven’t been the same since the days of the Irish Chuckle Brothers (Martin McGuinness & Ian Paisley). It’s hard to believe that these two bitter rivals for around 30 years were very close friends in the end. They done more together than the public think. In 2014, Ian…

Read More Read More