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Month: November 2019

Raab in trouble whilst Labour are on course to increase their majority in top Tory target seat

Raab in trouble whilst Labour are on course to increase their majority in top Tory target seat

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Esher & Walton, constituency voting intention: CON: 46% (-13)LDEM: 41% (+24)LAB: 9% (-11) via @DeltapollUK, 21 – 26 Nov — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 30, 2019 Portsmouth South, constituency voting intention: LAB: 46% (+5)CON: 38% (-)LDEM: 11% (-6)BREX: 2% (+2) via @DeltapollUK, 22 – 27 NovChgs. w/ GE2017 — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 30, 2019 Tonight sees a plethora of constituency polling by Deltapoll, I’ve chosen the two results that are eye catching. Dominic Raab who had a 42% majority…

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Time to Think the Unthinkable?

Time to Think the Unthinkable?

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“History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce” Karl Marx A guest slot from Stodge Like every other election, the June 2017 General Election had generated its fair share of myths and legends. One is that all the polls showed a big Conservative majority until the very end – well, some certainly did but not all. The YouGov from May 24-25 showed a Conservative lead of just 5 points while Opinium at the same time showed a ten point…

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Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?

Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?

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This should have been their breakthrough chance Jo Swinson confidently asserted at the start of this month that her ambition from the election was to become prime minister. At the time, it sounded exuberantly audacious; in retrospect, it sounds absurd with obvious echoes of David Steel exhorting his followers to go back to their constituencies and prepare for government. Steel ended up after the 1983 election with 23 seats; Swinson, if the YouGov MRP poll has some predictive value, will…

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New Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll suggests SNP gains from LAB and CON north of the border

New Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll suggests SNP gains from LAB and CON north of the border

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From @IpsosMORI Scotland poll with vote changes on Scottish results at GE2017. This points to SNP gains from both LAB and CON CON 26 -2.6LAB 16 -11.1LD 11 +4.2SNP 44 +7.1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2019 This could make Johnson’s majority bid that bit harder The part of the UK that has seen the most turbulence with many seats changing hands at the past two general elections has been Scotland which is why special attention needs to be…

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A 200/1 Tip for Next Prime Minister

A 200/1 Tip for Next Prime Minister

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The man who took over Hague’s Richmond (Yorks) seat at GE2015 One ever present Political Betting market is that of who will be the next Prime Minister. This will be greatly influenced by the outcome of the General Election, but probably not settled by this election. This is a market that could take many years before it is settled, which provides opportunities for trading bets. The polls currently indicate a healthy Conservative Majority. If that occurs you can rule out…

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GE2019 has become increasingly about Johnson’s efforts to deflect scutiny

GE2019 has become increasingly about Johnson’s efforts to deflect scutiny

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Conservative leader Boris Johnson refuses to commit to an interview with Andrew Neil before the general election https://t.co/cxnk4bMP2T pic.twitter.com/u1kYheea7r — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 28, 2019 These two ice sculptures – which represent the emergency on planet earth – will take the place of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage tonight after they declined our invitation to attend a party leaders’ #ClimateDebate Tune in at 7pm on 4 and here on Twitter: https://t.co/GXl7XiFbgA pic.twitter.com/niPE5MLdGV — Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) November 28,…

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