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Month: October 2019

If there’s no immediate General Election then the next big electoral test could be a Buckingham by-election

If there’s no immediate General Election then the next big electoral test could be a Buckingham by-election

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John Bercow, as we all know, is due to step down as Speaker on October 31st coinciding with the article 50 deadline for Britain’s exit from the EU. It has become customary, one of those unwritten parts of the constitution, for the outgoing Speaker to be elevated to a peerage and I guess  that will happen with Bercow. What would make a by-election  hard to call is that the constituency has not seen a proper General Election fight with all…

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Mitch McConnell’s failure to back Trump on Syria should be worrying for the White House

Mitch McConnell’s failure to back Trump on Syria should be worrying for the White House

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The total focus on Brexit over the past few days has taken the attention away from United States politics where the ongoing saga in relation to Donald Trump is becoming even more perilous for the 73 year old. There’ve been two big developments over the weekend and I suggest that something might possibly be happening that might not be good for the incumbent. Firstly there is the Washington Post article by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, above, in which he…

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A 3% return in a little over two months?

A 3% return in a little over two months?

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This market from Paddy Power seems to me a guaranteed way to get a 3% return in a little over two months. Like a 2019 general election I think we’re running out of time to hold one because the logistical challenges of holding an election in the run up to Christmas are insurmountable. To hold a 2019 referendum will require primary legislation and the electoral commission guidelines are that it will around twenty-one weeks from announcing a referendum to actually…

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Just a little bit of history repeating?

Just a little bit of history repeating?

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Who'd make best Prime Minister? Johnson 43% (+2)Corbyn 21% (-)Not sure 32% (-2) Leavers 73-6 for JohnsonWomen 38-20 Johnson18-24 yr olds 32-29 JohnsonWorking class 44-17 JohnsonMiddle class 42-23 JohnsonLondon 32-29 Johnson Put that in your twitter pipe & smoke it … — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) October 16, 2019 Why I’m not betting on a Tory landslide at the next election. In recent weeks it seems we get regular polling, like the tweet atop this article, on leadership ratings and preferred…

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Boris Johnson complies with the surrender bill, ditches all over the country are feeling lied to now

Boris Johnson complies with the surrender bill, ditches all over the country are feeling lied to now

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Like prorogation this looks like a classic Dom strategy but I expect Boris Johnson to be submissive to the courts early next week https://t.co/pwkQqnJYNp — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 19, 2019 It’s likely that this will end up in court on Monday. The case in the Scottish courts may well consider that this doesn’t not comply with the spirit of the Benn Act. — Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) October 19, 2019 And two of them will no doubt be carefully worded so…

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Johnson has till 11pm to send the letter or else he could face contempt of court proceedings

Johnson has till 11pm to send the letter or else he could face contempt of court proceedings

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On Monday the Prime Minister will be ordered by the Court to send the letter and/or the Court will sign it himself. If the Prime Minister does not send the letter by the deadline tonight we *will* bring contempt of court proceedings against him personally. pic.twitter.com/DVQl1DK2g6 — Jo Maugham QC (@JolyonMaugham) October 19, 2019 There are many battles still to come Apart from the processings taking place in the Scottish courts Johnson’s desire to get the Brexit legislation through the…

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So the Letwin amendment gets through by a majority of 16

So the Letwin amendment gets through by a majority of 16

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MPs approve Letwin amendment to the Brexit deal This amendment delays approval of the deal until the necessary legislation is passed Ayes: 322Noes: 306Majority: 16 Live updates: https://t.co/gQkqnzl6R4 #BrexitVote pic.twitter.com/lfsqqiw5pU — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) October 19, 2019

Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas election

Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas election

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His deal won’t pass, even if the numbers are there Boris Johnson has a problem and it’s not the one that most of the Westminster Village spent yesterday pondering. It is, however, one that gives the lie to the aphorism of the PM’s namesake, the 36th president of the United States, that “the first rule of politics is that its practitioners need to be able to count”. It’s not: that’s the second rule. The first rule is that its practitioners…

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