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Month: October 2019

Why the bar that the Tories will have to surmount at the next election has just got higher

Why the bar that the Tories will have to surmount at the next election has just got higher

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All the talk is of elections. This time we might actually see one. In a narrative that has strong echoes of 2017, the talk is all of the Conservatives holding large leads in the polls, remaking their coalition and sweeping all gloriously before them with a victory that will transform the electoral map. Well, perhaps. It was Marx who first suggested that when history repeats itself, the first time is tragedy and the second is farce. Whether or not you…

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On the betting markets punters now make it a 3.7% chance that Brexit will happen by the end of the month

On the betting markets punters now make it a 3.7% chance that Brexit will happen by the end of the month

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair market Last Thursday it nearly touched 50% There’s been a huge amount of activity on the £5m Betfair “Brexit by the end of October” market where just six days ago, after the deal was revealed, the chances of the UK leaving by October 31st were rated at 49%. More than £3m has been gambled with this one bookmaker in those few days. The Commons was always going to be a massive hurdle for Johnson given his…

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The People Will Speak

The People Will Speak

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There are, broadly, two groups supporting Brexit. First: people who feel that globalisation has gone too far, the cards stacked for far too long in favour of the rich, the well-connected, the mobile, the “citizens of the world”. They want more attention paid to those valuing home, the local, the familiar, the traditional, the markers of belonging: a flag, anthem, a shared history, a sense of “us” and “our story”. Conservative – in the sense of not wanting too much…

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MPs back the deal but block the timetable

MPs back the deal but block the timetable

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House of Commons: What do we want? A DEAL When do we want it? NOT RIGHT NOW — Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) October 22, 2019 Brexit drama updates: – UK government wins vote on WAB second reading (deal 'in principle') 329-299 – But loses vote on programme motion (timetabling of legislation) 308-322 Now what? pic.twitter.com/cHuXuHt35a — Eurocast ? (@eurocast_ox) October 22, 2019

Some in the Shadow Cabinet want an early election but Corbyn, surely, will want to wait

Some in the Shadow Cabinet want an early election but Corbyn, surely, will want to wait

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Chart of Betfair market from betdata.io According to this Guardian Tweet there was discussion at the Shadow cabinet this morning over the timing of the general election with one or two pressing for an early contest. As has been observed many times we are in a unique situation over this. Sure Johnson wants one as soon as possible because his government is in a minority and he’ll struggle to get anything through. Unfortunately for him the timing is no longer…

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The loss of DUP support means Johnson needs to make 10 more gains from LAB to stay at Number 10

The loss of DUP support means Johnson needs to make 10 more gains from LAB to stay at Number 10

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The most significant, though, hardly surprising development during Saturday’s special Brexit debate was that the DUP with its ten MPs has totally switched to opposing the government. It is hard to see how that can be changed certainly by the current PM. This was not a mistake that TMay would have made. The sense of betrayal coming from hardline unionist communities in Northern Ireland heightens the fact that Johnson’s readiness to ignore and ditch the key element of unionism about…

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Johnson’s problem is that his actions since becoming PM have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved

Johnson’s problem is that his actions since becoming PM have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved

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Clause 30 of the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill. What happens if the Government doesn’t propose an extension? Parliament would have no say and we would exit the transition period on the 31 Dec 2020 even if a trade agreement hadn’t been reached by then with the EU; ie no deal. pic.twitter.com/mbCAsrX0eB — Hilary Benn (@hilarybennmp) October 21, 2019 Why getting the timetable motion through is going to be a struggle Above is Hillary Benn on a key issue of which…

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