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Month: August 2019

Joe Walsh – my 130/1 longshot for the Republican nomination

Joe Walsh – my 130/1 longshot for the Republican nomination

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Could Trump face a challenge? Generally speaking incumbent presidents tend not to have to face a serious primary challenge when they run for a second term. Certainly that’s been the assumption with Donald Trump and until now the possibility of other challengers has not appeared. That is changing with a prominent former Republican congressman and now a right wing radio host, Joe Walsh, saying that he is seriously considering running against the President. One of the unique features of the…

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Why they just don’t put up a hard border in Ireland

Why they just don’t put up a hard border in Ireland

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From Topping, who served there with the British Army during the Troubles It was sobering listening to Simon Byrne, a bluff Northerner and current chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), this morning on the radio opining on the practicalities of policing a hard border should it be required. He feared a return to a paramilitary style of policing and how, with his 7,000 policemen, it would be impossible to fulfil such a remit. At the height…

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Red Letter Day. Jeremy Corbyn’s chances of being next Prime Minister

Red Letter Day. Jeremy Corbyn’s chances of being next Prime Minister

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It used to be so easy. For the period after the 2017 general election when Theresa May was Prime Minister, all you had to do was take advantage of Jeremy Corbyn’s enthusiasts and regularly lay him for next Prime Minister at the short prices that prevailed. Since she had made it plain that she was not going to fight the next election, so the circumstances in which he would be next Prime Minister were very limited indeed.   He wasn’t the…

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HS2 might be hated by Tory activists but scrapping it could lead the party to being portrayed as being anti-north

HS2 might be hated by Tory activists but scrapping it could lead the party to being portrayed as being anti-north

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Wikipedia The biggest mistake that was made over HS2 was to call it just that. This is why it polls so poorly. It sounds like a vanity project which is exactly what it isn’t. The new line would free up chronic under-capacity on the existing West Coast Main Line including for all the local and commuter services. If this had been billed as “West Coast Mainline upgrade” it wouldn’t have attracted anything like the opposition. So the decision to review…

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A man of principles. Boris Johnson and the EU

A man of principles. Boris Johnson and the EU

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If consistency is the sign of a small mind, then Boris Johnson must have a brain the size of a planet. For he has slid from position to position on the EU like Bambi on ice. In 2003, he opened a speech to the House of Commons, in which he advocated Turkish membership of the EU, thus:  “It is hard to think of a measure that the Government could have brought to the House that I could support more unreservedly…

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The lead of “Brexit Wrong” in the YouGov tracker drops to its lowest level since last December

The lead of “Brexit Wrong” in the YouGov tracker drops to its lowest level since last December

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The good news Johnson continues with a 42% CON share from Kantar Until today's Kantar poll is broadly supported by other pollsters we should treat it as an outlier pic.twitter.com/j2b5Z1IDnP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 21, 2019 More from Kantar Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?Leave No Deal: 23Leave TM Deal: 9Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13Remain/Revoke A50: 33DK: 22 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 21, 2019 But voters want the final deal to be put to…

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With the Iowa betting markets now being opened a helpful primer on how its caucuses actually work

With the Iowa betting markets now being opened a helpful primer on how its caucuses actually work

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Ladbrokes and Betfair have now got markets up on the first big hurdle in WH2020 – the Iowa Caucuses which are scheduled for February 3rd next year. Because of their historical importance and that so many Democrats are contenders this looks set to be a hugely significant day and a very big betting event. The first thing to remember about them is that only a smallish proportion of Democrats and Republicans actually participate. This time for both parties it might…

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The first YouGov for a fortnight sees CON/LAB/LD holding pretty firm

The first YouGov for a fortnight sees CON/LAB/LD holding pretty firm

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New @YouGov poll for the Times has little changeCON 30 -1LAB 21 -1LD 20-1BREX 14=GRN+113-14 Aug — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2019 None of the suggested candidates to be temporary PM in a government of national unity are very popular choices with the public:Ken Clarke – 25% good choice for PMHarriet Harman – 19%Jeremy Corbyn – 15%Jo Swinson – 13%Caroline Lucas – 13%https://t.co/ZLU6wG6N8n pic.twitter.com/odT3oThdpB — YouGov (@YouGov) August 20, 2019