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Chart of Betfair Exchange from Betdata.io We’ve discussed the timing of the next general election a fair bit on PB and my guess is that we’ll return to it quite often in the next few weeks. It might not be as easy for a general election to be called as many seem to think. For a general election to take place the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes it a requirement that two thirds of the entire House of Commons, 433…

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Johnson’s challenge: not triggering off a new round of troubles In a post here last year I highlighted an article by John McTernan, Tony Blair’s former director of political operations, which sought to set out clearly why the Northern Ireland border has been such an issue in the Brexit negotiations. He wrote: “.. there is no concession that can be given on the backstop or, as it should properly be considered, Northern Ireland. The fundamental problem here is not the…

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2/n There were *a lot* of very expensive pledges in his speech:– Free university tuition– Renationalisation of key industries– "Ending austerity" i.e. major increases in day-to-day spending How will this all be paid for? — David Herdson (@DavidHerdson) August 19, 2019 4/n There is a lot of work to be done / explained in Labour's policies – are they up to doing so? Can they explain, simply, what "[We'll] give the workforce a 10% stake in large companies; paying a…

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From Betdata.io – the last month on Betfair GE year market But 2019 still a strong odds-on favourite As can be seen from the chart there has been a huge amount of volatility on the year of the next general election with punters starting to move back from 2019 which got to a 73% chance earlier in the week. As we know under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act there are two ways an election can be triggered ahead of 2022…

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