At first glance this market from Ladbrokes seems like an easy way to earn a 40% return as it seems we are headed for an early election with Boris Johnson’s actions indicating that’s where we will end up. An early election gives no realistic way for Corbyn to be removed or stand down as Labour leader.
With no honeymoon BJ for the Tories first in Brecon & Radnorshire and ComRes now having the Tories one per cent behind Labour, only a few weeks after ComRes were predicting a 150 seat majority for a Boris Johnson led Tory party you can see why Boris Johnson might not opt to hold an early election, especially after how a snap election or talk therein ruined the reputations and authority of his two mandateless predecessors.
If there’s not going to be a snap election then if we see more polling similar to the findings from Deltapoll below then I can see Corbyn ousted.
Mail on Sunday / Deltapoll shows Labour would beat Tories if they ditched Corbyn…. ? pic.twitter.com/9ukLZylYTl
— MoS_Politics (@MoS_Politics) July 27, 2019
If Labour members realise Corbyn is the roadblock to them winning a general election then Corbyn should be ousted, his supporters are appeal loyal, but we live in volatile times, what we’ve learned in the last few years are the tales of the unexpected do happen.
I expect somehow we’ll end up with a general election by next spring as sustained No Deal will see the fall of the government, like the winter of discontent on speed, ‘and now, instead of mounting barbed steeds, To fright the souls of fearful adversaries, He capers nimbly in a lady’s chamber’ seems apt for Boris Johnson.
So all things considered I think the 2/5 is the best option, but if there’s a route to government lasting until 2021 or later I’d be interested in 7/4 option.