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Month: January 2019

Whatever you think of Bercow it is right that the executive has less control over proceedings of the elected House

Whatever you think of Bercow it is right that the executive has less control over proceedings of the elected House

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Like many I’ve often been irritated by John Bercow particularly at the lengthy interjections he likes to make at PMQs which can appear like grandstanding. It is said that his approach to the role is anti-Tory, a view I don’t hold. If he appears that way it is down to the fact that for the vast majority of his time in the job the Tories have been in power and inevitably the executive hates anything that impedes their actions. Basically…

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On the eve of the big vote political punters now make it 79% that the UK won’t leave the EU by March 29th

On the eve of the big vote political punters now make it 79% that the UK won’t leave the EU by March 29th

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Chart from Betdata.io showing trend on what is currently the busiest political market on the Betfair Exchange. The general view is that TMay is heading for a defeat tomorrow night when MPs are at last given a chance to vote on the deal. Assuming that happens she then has three days to come back to the house with another proposal. Quite how that shapes up is hard to read but punters are gambling that the UK won’t be leaving on…

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Rebels without a get-out clause. Why you shouldn’t expect many declared Leave opponents of the deal to back down

Rebels without a get-out clause. Why you shouldn’t expect many declared Leave opponents of the deal to back down

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(Constituencies coded A had a Leave vote of over 60%, those coded B had a Leave vote of over 50%, those coded C had a Leave vote over 40% and those coded D had a Leave vote of less than 40%. ) Everyone loves talking about the rebel MPs who have put Theresa May in double trouble.  There are numerous lists floating around.  Some list all the MPs who have expressed reservations about Chequers or the deal.  Some seek to look…

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The weekend polling suggests that Trump is losing voter support in the battle of “The Wall”

The weekend polling suggests that Trump is losing voter support in the battle of “The Wall”

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Now he’s in negative territory amongst non-college whites With the US government shutdown continuing and 800k federal workers not getting their salary cheques on Friday there’s no sign of an end to what is totally dominating US politics. Basically Trump has shut down large parts of the federal government to put pressure on the Democrats to provide funding for a wall along the whole of the Mexican-US border. This was a key Trump WH2016 campaign pledge when he said the…

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The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in Brussels

The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in Brussels

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For most of the modern era Italy has been treated as something of a lightweight in world affairs despite being one of the world’s largest economies. This has often been on the back of weak and unpredictable government which has stopped Italy taking a wider role. Within the European Union itself Italy has been treated as something inconsequential despite being a founder member. Northern Europeans and especially German politicians have been openly scathing about the country. More recently Emmanuel Macron…

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The Italian Job – Part One: 5 Star and the Lega blow the bloody doors off

The Italian Job – Part One: 5 Star and the Lega blow the bloody doors off

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This is an article about Italian politics. I have had to stop typing just to double check what I’ve written. Since when has Italian politics been interesting? Italian politicians of course – Berlusconi, bunga bunga, strange men from the Mezzogiorno who sleep with horses heads, big backhanders, ladies with big backsides, Parliamentary punch ups – Italian politicians have fascinated us. But that was entertainment not real politics.  For most of us modern Italian politics has been a distant background noise of…

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Why the Brexit divisions are here to stay

Why the Brexit divisions are here to stay

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When you stop and think about it, voting is a very low information form of communication. We get nothing about the certainty of the voter’s view, nothing about the enthusiasm of the voter, nothing about the considerations that led the voter to that view. All we get is a single recorded choice. As a result, every so often a political truth is so stark staring obvious, so central to British politics, that it is almost entirely missed. We are at…

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It’s time for the Tories to pick a candidate for Buckingham

It’s time for the Tories to pick a candidate for Buckingham

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Bercow needs to be eased out, one way or another Goodwill is the oil which lubricates the British constitution. The rules of parliament have been inherited from a time when governing was a gentlemen’s business and was expected to be carried out by gentlemen acting as gentlemen. Self-restraint and the awareness of when it becomes inappropriate to keep pushing a case are an essential aspect to enabling the system to work. Parliament is frequently criticised for being overly adversarial –…

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