Why I’m betting on Theresa May to still be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory party conference.
This Paddy Power market is essentially a bet on Mrs May getting a deal done and passed in the Commons. Iff she manages to achieve those two things then I’d expect Mrs May and the Tories to get a boost in the polls so ditching her straight away might not be possible.
With Boris Johnson confirming once again he is the modern day Churchill, Randolph that is, not Winston, the ERG in their desperation are talking about installing David Davis as interim party leader and Prime Minister. The tweet below shows why he is quite incompetent and lazy to be Prime Minister, and would struggle to be a reasonably competent head of a Wolverhampton Job Centre Plus. If Mrs May was at risk of being toppled David Davis would not be the great hope of the Leavers.
If we get a no deal Brexit then I’d advise piling on the no side of this bet but my expectation is that Mrs May (and most other Tories) realise that no deal results in the Tories being out of power for a generation, they cannot let no deal happen for their own interests as well as the country. No wonder stories emerged last night that a deal could be finalised today and has today seen Dominic Raab rush to Bruxelles for talks.
PS – I’ve always had a strong hunch that serial flouncer David Davis wouldn’t contest the next Tory leadership election but endorse and campaign for his former Chief of Staff Dominic Raab.