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Month: July 2018

BoJo moves to joint next CON leader favourite with Moggsy following his resignation speech

BoJo moves to joint next CON leader favourite with Moggsy following his resignation speech

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Betdata.io With so much up in the air in British politics at the moment there’s been a lot of movement in the next CON leader betting. It is beginning to look as though Theresa May will survive until the autumn at least and maybe beyond and the question is who will actually replace her? Yesterday, of course, the ex Foreign Secretary secured a lot of coverage for his resignation address to MPs. Although it was nothing like the dramatic event…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: The week the polls turned, Boris makes a speech and why Theresa May is a modern day Mr Burns

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: The week the polls turned, Boris makes a speech and why Theresa May is a modern day Mr Burns

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This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts. In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by James Crouch of Opinium to discuss polling that shows Labour taking the lead as the Tory vote share falls. Keiran and James discuss why this is and whether the Tories could fall further still and what voters think of the concept of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. In part two, Keiran is joined by Asa Bennet of the Telegraph to discuss what’s…

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BoJo’s resignation speech – some reaction

BoJo’s resignation speech – some reaction

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It certainly wasn’t up to the Sir Geoffrey Howe standard The key points from Boris Johnson's speech in the Commons, from @Steven_Swinford * 'It is not too late to save Brexit. We have time'* Chequers is a 'permanent limbo and democratic disaster'* The Govt has spent past 18 months in a 'fog of self-doubt'https://t.co/Y7VACzOQNn pic.twitter.com/KIGzZ3PPwo — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) July 18, 2018 Boris Johnson says "the pound soared" after May's Lancaster House speech. Value of pound on day of speech…

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PB Video Analysis: Brexit – What Does “No Deal”Actually Mean?

PB Video Analysis: Brexit – What Does “No Deal”Actually Mean?

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The UK is due to leave the EU on March 29th 2019. With Mrs May’s Chequers deal rejected by the Commons, and no obvious alternative on the table, leaving the EU with No Deal and previous little preparation is looking increasingly likely. In this video, I ask ask what the consequences would be. Would food become scarce? Would the economy collapse? Or is this just another example of Project Fear? (And please click the funny YouTube button above to subscribe!)…

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The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings recovery be hit?

The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings recovery be hit?

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RCP Judging by the US media there’s no doubt that Helsinki was bad for Trump. But was it? Will he still retain the support of his base? What will be the electoral impact of yesterday. US polling uses leader ratings much more widely than the experience in the UK and the first post meeting ratings numbers are eagerly awaited. As can be seen from the chart he has been enjoying something of a recovery. Will that be sustained or will…

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Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters demanding a TMay confidence ballot

Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters demanding a TMay confidence ballot

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If its like the IDS ousting the first signs will be on Betfair Since the Conservative Party introduced its new leadership roles while William Hague was in charge the procedure for getting rid of the incumbent has only been used once. That was, of course, the ousting of Iain Duncan Smith in October 2003. What was intriguing about that dismissal was that the events behind closed doors in Westminster were largely being reflected on Betfair. Like now there were two…

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At a 70%+ chance the betting markets are surely over-rating Trump’s chances of being the WH2020 GOP nominee

At a 70%+ chance the betting markets are surely over-rating Trump’s chances of being the WH2020 GOP nominee

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The best post-Helsinki bets? Judging by the reaction in the US overnight Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin has gone down like a like a bowl of cold sick most strikingly within his own party. He’s been damaged. There’s no point in me repeating here the wide coverage that we’ve seen but question for punters, surely, is what are the best Trump bets. There are, as we know, many markets. Will he complete a full first term? (Betfair 74%) What…

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Trump appearing deferential to Putin isn’t going to help him win WH2020

Trump appearing deferential to Putin isn’t going to help him win WH2020

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Given the initial US media reaction, even that from Fox News, the President isn’t getting good coverage for his historic meeting with Putin. This was from former Republican cabdidate and current Senator, John McCain: “Today’s press conference in Helsinki was one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory. The damage inflicted by President Trump’s naiveté, egotism, false equivalence, and sympathy for autocrats is difficult to calculate. But it is clear that the summit in Helsinki was…

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