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Month: July 2018

After just a year in the job Cable comes under pressure

After just a year in the job Cable comes under pressure

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Mail reporting LD plot to swap Vince Cable, 75, for Layla Moran, 35 https://t.co/BwUBULHXuN via @MailOnline — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2018 Could he be the first party leader out? I have no idea whether the Mail story linked to in the tweet above is correct but there’s little doubt that Cable’s failure to participate in one of the key Commons votes of this Parliament has raised a few eyebrows something that’s been exacerbated by the narrowness of outcome….

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While the Tories tear themselves apart on Brexit LAB’s new antisemitism policy threatens a divide between the NEC and the party at Westminster

While the Tories tear themselves apart on Brexit LAB’s new antisemitism policy threatens a divide between the NEC and the party at Westminster

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Just at a time when the Tories are totally split on Brexit LAB'S s divide on anti-semitism get widerhttps://t.co/T8UkCnGdWE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2018 There’s a new poll from YouGov out this morning which has Labour’s lead down to just 1% if BoJo was CON leader. This coincides with the renewed row within Corbyn’s Labour over anti-semitism following the decision of the party’s national executive committee to trim down the widely regarded definition of what anti-semitism is. This…

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My 270/1 shot for the White House indicates that he might run

My 270/1 shot for the White House indicates that he might run

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Watch out for John Hickenlooper – Governor of Colorado Back in early April I reported that I’d backed Governor John Hickenlooper for the presidency at odds of 270/1 on Betfair. One of the things about super long-shots is that you generally don’t know when you place your bet whether your man/woman will actually make a bid. So today’s strong indication that he is considering putting his hat into the ring is a big step forward. I’d first noticed Hickenlooper a…

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A week is a long time in politics

A week is a long time in politics

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Corporeal wonders just what we’ve done to deserve our current political situation. History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce. Then after that, and if we are being punished for some serious crimes committed in a previous life, it descends into whatever this is. I’ve been trying to crowbar an article around a Groundhog day analogy, since every week recently has seemed so depressingly familiar. Theresa May has established herself (for lack of a worse word) as a career…

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The places where people would most like to live mostly voted Remain

The places where people would most like to live mostly voted Remain

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Away from Brexit for moment with some polling on what are seen as Britain’s desirable locations to live. With Channel 4 going through a process of choosing a location outside London for a new creative hub YouGov have been carrying out the polling which no doubt will prove controversial. On my Twitter feed it was observed that most of the top choices all voted remain at the referendum. You have to go down to 9th place, Nottingham to find a…

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At GE2017 six times as many CON voters said Brexit was the deciding issue than LAB ones

At GE2017 six times as many CON voters said Brexit was the deciding issue than LAB ones

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Lord Ashcroft GE2017 on the day poll Why LAB should worry less about supporters who backed leave On general election day last year the Conservative peer, Lord Ashcroft, carried out a huge 14,000 sample poll to find out amongst other things why people had voted as they did and to tryto understand better what had happened. The survey was similar to US exit polls where much more than voting data is collected. The BBC/Sky/ITV UK exit poll is solely about…

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Republican voters remain solidly behind Trump in the first post-Helsinki polls

Republican voters remain solidly behind Trump in the first post-Helsinki polls

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Those polled responded along strong partisan lines Anybody expecting that President Trump’s widely criticised approach at the Helsinki summit with Putin would hurt him amongst his base is going to be disappointed. The first polls are now out and they show the same picture – very solid support from Republican Party voters for the Presidents handling of Russian leader, Putin Axios/SurveyMonkey has 79% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling. This compares with 91% of Democrats and 62% of independents who…

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Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on whether Brexit will happen on time

Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on whether Brexit will happen on time

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Betdata.io I’ve been glued to the Tour de France coverage this afternoon and haven’t really been following the pairing row. The chart shows the changing views in the “Will UK leave the EU by March 29 2019” betting and shows it getting tighter. Clearly the politics are so much harder to read. One other development that hasn’t been much reported on is the growing movement within Momentum to call for a new Brexit vote as reported here in this FT…

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