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Month: September 2017

The DUP deal has cost a lot more than £2bn: it’s blown apart the Tories’ economic case

The DUP deal has cost a lot more than £2bn: it’s blown apart the Tories’ economic case

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Austerity is dead – but what can replace it? YouGov published the results of an innovative survey on Thursday, where it found that the British public seemed more willing to pay a Brexit bill of £25bn (where 29% said they would find that acceptable), than one of £10bn (backed by 18%). Good news for Monsieur Barnier? Not exactly. The survey was designed to assess the effect of the options presented on the answers elicited, with the sample split into two…

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It is either bye bye Boris or bye bye Theresa, or bye bye both of them

It is either bye bye Boris or bye bye Theresa, or bye bye both of them

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Saturday's Daily TELEGRAPH: "Boris: yes, we WILL take back £350m from EU for NHS" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/YVZyhBQJxO — Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) September 15, 2017 https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/908791853151145985 Is Boris going to put this on the side of his leadership campaign bus? pic.twitter.com/LhaRRRhWtd — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 15, 2017 Boris Johnson told No10 he wouldn't comment before Theresa's speech. Now he's defying her with his own red lines https://t.co/WYJOEYv0ZU — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) September 15, 2017 Yes! Here we go, here we…

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Local By-Election Review : September 14th 2017

Local By-Election Review : September 14th 2017

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  Westexe on Mid Devon (United Kingdom Independence Party defence) Result: Conservative 279 (36% +6% on last time), Independent 179 (23% +4% on last time), Labour 164 (21% +9% on last time), Liberal Democrat 144 (19%, no candidate last time) No UKIP candidate this time (-28%), No Green candidate this time (-12%) Conservative GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 100 (13%) on a notional swing of 1% from Independent to Conservative (actual swing: 17% from UKIP to Con) Lyme…

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Betting on the number of tweets by Donald Trump next week

Betting on the number of tweets by Donald Trump next week

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Paddy Power have a market up on how many times Donald Trump will tweet from his @RealDonaldTrump account between the 18th and 24th of September. The website twittercounter has analysed Trump’s twitter account, and over the last 30 days he’s averaging six tweets per day, so over a week, we should expect something around 42 tweets per week, so by my reckoning the 11/1 on 31-40 tweets represents value. However I’m not comfortable on staking much on someone as volatile as…

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Previewing tonight’s 3 by elections

Previewing tonight’s 3 by elections

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Three council by-elections tonight. One Conservative defence, one Labour, one UKIP. See @andrewteale's previews: https://t.co/rLuNwWrtqk — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 14, 2017 TSE

Mrs May’s Italian job could see Boris quit

Mrs May’s Italian job could see Boris quit

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Downing Street puts Boris on "flounce-watch"https://t.co/tHZSpfJQBR — Francis Elliott (@elliottengage) September 14, 2017 You’re only supposed to blow the bloody doors off Mrs May, not lose your Foreign Secretary. Overnight it was revealed that Mrs May will give a speech in Florence a week on Friday. The Telegraph says [she will] set out her vision of post-Brexit Britain in her most important speech about the EU since January. Downing Street announced that the Prime Minister would speak in Italy on Friday,…

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Porn in the U.S.A.

Porn in the U.S.A.

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I’ve always felt the topics of the betting markets are an indicator of how parties, governments, and leaders are doing. This market by the famously publicity shy bookmaker Paddy Power sums up the Trump Presidency, this is the sort of market I’d expect to see about Silvio Berlusconi, if a Trump Presidency was going well, we wouldn’t get a market like this. With Russian politicians openly boasting they have compromising information on Trump and Russian intelligence stole the American Presidency…

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Why the Corbynite candidate might not win the Scottish Labour Leadership

Why the Corbynite candidate might not win the Scottish Labour Leadership

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Why the Labour centrists stand a better chance in Scotland – @chris__curtis looks at Scottish Labour's membership https://t.co/WJtd00qpQ2 — YouGov (@YouGov) September 13, 2017 1/ For a start, Scottish Labour members are more centrist than Labour party members in England and Wales https://t.co/WJtd00qpQ2 pic.twitter.com/hTNXaEwrQJ — YouGov (@YouGov) September 13, 2017 2/ Scottish Labour saw less of an influx of new members following the 2015 general election… https://t.co/WJtd00qpQ2 pic.twitter.com/Mg4m5XkLWI — YouGov (@YouGov) September 13, 2017 3/ …this is in part because…

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