Paddy Power have some Brexit specials up, most of them look like contributions to the Paddy Power bonus fund, or a long term interest free loan to them. The one that attracted my attention was the 3/1 on there no Brexit deal being reached before the 1st of April 2019.
Whilst Mrs May’s rhetoric of ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ has been consigned to the dustbin of history after June 8th, I still think no deal is likely simply because of the complexity of the deal required, and time is very short, with nearly three months of the two year article 50 timetable frittered away with the needless general election Mrs May called which saw her lose David Cameron’s majority.
The EU have also recently become impatient with things,
The UK risks a cliff edge “no deal” withdrawal from the EU if it “wastes” more time before beginning its Brexit negotiations, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator has warned.
Michel Barnier, whose department within the European Commission has spent months preparing for Brexit, said: “I can’t negotiate with myself.
“My preoccupation is that time is passing, it is passing quicker than anyone believes because the subjects we have to deal with are extraordinarily complex,” he said in an interview with a select group of European newspapers including Britain’s Financial Times.
All of this makes me thinks the sheer logistics of Brexit and time constraints, coupled with a lack of majority for Mrs May make no deal the most likely outcome, so that’s why I’ll be backing the 3/1.