Harry Hayfield on whether they’re a pointer to Thursday

There have been 588 local by-elections during this Parliament in which a total of 1,029,887 votes have been cast. These are not virtual votes cast in opinion polls, or online, but physical votes in physical ballot boxes up and down the country. Overall these votes (and seat wins) have split as follows:

Con 30%, Lab 28%, Lib Dem 16%, UKIP 7%, SNP 6%, Green 5%, Ind 4%, Plaid 0.77%, Others 3%
Con 235 (-19), Lab 159 (-18), Lib Dem 89 (+39), UKIP 13 (-14), SNP 30 (+1), Green 8 (+4), Ind 26 (-3), Plaid 9 (+4), Others 30 (+1)

However, as we all know, there was a mass upheaval halfway through this Parliament with the European Union referendum, and it is interesting to note that in the 332 local by-elections following that referendum, the voting share (and seat wins) was:

Con 34%, Lab 27%, Lib Dem 18%, UKIP 6%, Ind 5%, Green 4%, SNP 3%, Plaid 1%, Others 2%
Con 148 (-6), Lab 81 (-22), Lib Dem 59 (+33), UKIP 6 (-9), Ind 15 (-5), Green 4 (+2), SNP 5 (-1), Plaid 5 (+3), Others 9 (+9)

Therefore in order to make sense of this sea change in politics and put it in the context of the general election, I will tally the votes cast in all the local by-elections both before and after the referendum, thus creating a midpoint by region and using that to calculate the number of seats that each party may win. I realise that this may upset some people but seeing as we have multiple polling organisations stating that (on the same day) the Conservative lead is in the range of 3% to 12%, then I believe my methodology has just as much validity as theirs

Regional Breakdown of Votes (and Seat Forecast)
Scotland: SNP 44%, Lab 25%, Con 20%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 5%, UKIP 1%
Forecast: SNP 50 (-6), Con 5 (+4), Lab 3 (+2), Lib Dem 1 (unchanged)
North Eastern England: Lab 44%, Con 25%, Lib Dem 18%, UKIP 11%, Green 2%
Forecast: Lab 24 (-2), Con 5 (+2)
North Western England: Lab 47%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 7%, Green 5%
Forecast: Lab 53 (+2), Con 20 (-2), Lib Dem 2 (unchanged)
Yorkshire and the Humber: Con 33%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 16%, UKIP 16%, Green 3%
Forecast: Lab 26 (-7), Con 23 (+4), Lib Dem 2 (unchanged), UKIP 3 (+3)
Wales: Lab 40%, Plaid 24%, Lib Dem 16%, Con 15%, UKIP 4%, Green 1%
Forecast: Lab 30 (+5), Con 4 (-7), Plaid 4 (+1), Lib Dem 2 (+1)
West Midlands: Con 38%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 11%, Green 5%
Forecast: Con 32 (-1), Lab 26 (+1)
East Midlands: Con 47%, Lab 29%, Lib Dem 13%, UKIP 9%, Green 2%
Forecast: Con 32 (unchanged), Lab 14 (unchanged)
Eastern England: Con 40%, Lab 21%, Lib Dem 21%, UKIP 13%, Green 4%
Forecast: Con 47 (-5), Lab 6 (+2), Lib Dem 3 (+2), UKIP 2 (+1)
Greater London: Lab 52%, Con 21%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 9%, UKIP 4%
Forecast: Lab 54 (+9), Con 15 (-12), Lib Dem 4 (+3)
South Eastern England: Con 45%, Lib Dem 21%, Lab 19%, UKIP 11%, Green 3%
Forecast: Con 69 (-9), Lab 7 (+3), Lib Dem 5 (+5), Green 1 (unchanged), Speaker 1 (unchanged), UKIP 1 (+1)
South Western England: Con 38%, Lib Dem 35%, Lab 13%, UKIP 8%, Green 7%
Forecast: Con 34 (-17), Lab 5 (+1), Lib Dem 16 (+16)
Grand Total:
Con 286 (-45), Lab 248 (+16), SNP 50 (-6), Lib Dem 35 (+27), Northern Ireland 18 (unchanged), UKIP 6 (+5), Plaid 4 (+1), Speaker 1 (unchanged), Green 1 (unchanged)
(Hung Parliament, Conservatives short by 40)
Coalition Builder: Lab (248) + SNP (50) = 298
Coalition Builder: Con (286) + Unionists (10) + UKIP (6) = 302
Liberal Democrats hold the balance