Why you shouldn’t rely on the BREXIT experience as a pointer to a Trump victory
The elections are not as comparable as they might appear
There’s an ongoing argument that’s being made every day that Donald Trump can take heart from the fact that the BREXIT polling, betting and forecasts were wrong.
Certainly there’s little doubt that in broad terms he appeals to the same demographic groups that backed LEAVE. He’s tapping into much of the anger that we saw in the referendum. In the betting we’ve also got what we experienced ahead of June 23rd – in terms of the amount of money being wagered the balance was to REMAIN while in terms of the overall number of bets the LEAVE side had it.
Most bookies are reporting the same with WH2016. They have had more Trump bets than Clinton ones but overall more money on the latter. That might, of course, be down to the tight odds-on price that the former Secretary of State has moved to. A Clinton bet doesn’t offer much value.
Also unlike the referendum only a very small proportion of bets placed in the UK are from those who’ll be able to vote on November 8th. The online bookmakers go to great lengths to stop bets from the US being placed.
The expectations from leading pundits was that REMAIN would win which is just the same with WH2016 and Hillary Clinton.
Where it falls down is that the polling pattern does not compare. In the final three weeks leading up to June 23rd there were more polls with LEAVE leads than REMAIN ones. In the US race Trump has had very few leads of late with most national and swing state polls going the Clinton way.
Another factor is early voting. After June 23rd it was said that LEAVE had secured a big lead amongst postal voters which made up about a fifth of the total. In the Trump-Clinton fight what early voting indicators there are point to the Democrats at least equalling or doing better than four years ago.
This doesn’t mean that a Trump victory is out of the question just that the two elections are not as comparable as is being suggested.