Paddy Power and Betfair have markets up on the turnout on the White House race, I’m not sure what the level of turnout will be, I can see given the polarising nature of the candidates, and especially with the fervour of Trumpers, with 40% of Trump supporters in Florida telling PPP that they thought Hillary Clinton was a demon turnout will be up from the 2012. Another boost for turnout on both sides should be Trump saying in last night’s debate that Roe v. Wade will be overturned ‘automatically’ if he’s elected.

On the flip side, with the apparent GOP establishment going on strike against Trump, and both major party candidates having dire personal ratings, I can foresee turnout going below 50%, I’m not sure there’s any value left in this market, but if I was forced to have a bet, I’d go for 49.99% or below, which is available at around 6/1 ish because as you can see in the chart above, US Presidential turnout levels are significantly lower than we’re used to in the U.K for general elections.

TSE