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Month: April 2016

Because CON members are overwhelmingly for LEAVE doesn’t mean that party supporters are the same

Because CON members are overwhelmingly for LEAVE doesn’t mean that party supporters are the same

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The Tory voter split will be crucial According to the regular ConHome surveys and a YouGov CON members poll last month the blue team’s members are solidly for LEAVE and this impacts on perceptions of how Tory voters will split on June 23rd. But this isn’t supported by the pulling evidence that we have. Above is a chart based on the LEAVE REMAIN split shown in five recent polls from leading pollsters. Yes all of them have LEAVE in the…

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REMAIN moves back up a touch after busy day on the referendum markets

REMAIN moves back up a touch after busy day on the referendum markets

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Renewed confidence in Cameron? REMAIN edges back up notch on Betfair #EUref market after day in which £106k matched pic.twitter.com/TEkDi00MUM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2016 £107,798 of bets matched on Betfair alone Where the political betting activity has been today pic.twitter.com/rFCWDU7hAK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2016

We are now at Peak Bern

We are now at Peak Bern

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Hillary should finally start to gather momentum after Bernie’s last boost It’s a measure of how weak a candidate Hillary Clinton is that not only has she failed to swat away Bernie Sanders’ challenge for the nomination but three-fifths of the way through she’s still conceding ground to the septuagenarian socialist. Normally, by this stage in the race, one candidate is dominant and the money and coverage will have dried up for the rest. Instead, Sanders has won seven of…

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With Zac continuing to trail some Tory voices are questioning the Crosby-inspired campaign

With Zac continuing to trail some Tory voices are questioning the Crosby-inspired campaign

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Donald Brind looks at the Goldsmith campaign tactics Pick your metaphor. Canine or feline. The folklore surrounding Tory election guru Lynton Crosby has both “dead cats” and “dog whistles”. They refer to a strategy based on playing the man not the ball; issuing innuendos and smears rather than fighting on the issues.He was David Cameron’s saviour in the general election but the Crosby approach failed to deliver for the Canadian Tories back in October. Crosby’s fingerprints are all over the…

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Alastair Meeks looking ahead to the GE2020

Alastair Meeks looking ahead to the GE2020

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The Tories are evens to get an overall majority in 2020. Why? asks Alastair Meeks We’ve been here before.  We languish under a Conservative government with a tiny majority, distracted by a frenzied and incomprehensible internal argument being conducted in raised voices over the EU (a subject about which the public largely do not care), staggering from wholly avoidable crisis to wholly avoidable crisis.  The public rightly see the Conservative party as horribly divided.  Disquiet is growing about their basic…

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If next CON leader betting prices are indicator then Boris leadership ambitions not helped by BREXIT campaign

If next CON leader betting prices are indicator then Boris leadership ambitions not helped by BREXIT campaign

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Boris down sharply on the Betfair next CON leader market. Was a 32% chance at start of month now 22% pic.twitter.com/Bq7X1RSOMT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2016 So far punters not convinced that Cameron is going soon. No money at all matched in past 24 hours on Betfair's Cameron exit date market. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2016 Asking @BorisJohnson if it's morally wrong to invest in offshore trusts and funds. #c4news @cathynewmanhttps://t.co/Cu3BeYVZzU — Channel 4 News (@Channel4News)…

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We need to re-think next CON leader betting following Cameron’s rough week on his financial affairs

We need to re-think next CON leader betting following Cameron’s rough week on his financial affairs

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SUNDAY TIMES LEAD: Now Cameron could avoid inheritance tax on 200k gift, by @ShippersUnbound #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/joPKCITJNC — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) April 9, 2016 Dave’s successor will have had a much more humble upbringing One consequence I’d suggest of the past week’s revelations relating to David Cameron is that his successor will come from a very different sort of background. Next time the party will not choose a “posh boy who doesn’t know the price of bread” to use the Nadine…

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The Republican dilemma: Would dumping Trump be worth the hassle?

The Republican dilemma: Would dumping Trump be worth the hassle?

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And if it is, then what? It is something of an irony that after months of saying outrageous things and winning more and more support off the back of it, Trump’s downfall might well be due to a sensible answer. There is, after all, nothing unusual or wrong in the principle that people who break the law should be punished. If it doesn’t feel right to apply the punishment, chances are the law shouldn’t be there in the first place….

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