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Month: March 2016

Where political gamblers are risking their money at the moment

Where political gamblers are risking their money at the moment

Thanks to PB’s new odds widgets provided by Liberty Tech we are now able to track the amount of betting there has been on selected political markets. This is one of the lines of data that’s available in our new live odds tool and does put things into perspective We might have all been talking about Osbo’s leadership chances yesterday but virtually nobody was ready to have a punt. Of course there is a big range of other bookmakers out…

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Tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show: WH2016, the impact of the budget on Osborne’s ambitions and the latest on BREXIT

Tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show: WH2016, the impact of the budget on Osborne’s ambitions and the latest on BREXIT

Discussion and insight on the political issues of the week The latest PB/PM TV Show is just out and rather than examine the detail of the budget seeks to look at its impact on the EURef and, of course, Osbo’s leadership ambitions. Also, of course, there’s a look at the latest “Super Tuesday” primaries and whether Hillary versus Trump is now a foregone conclusion. Keiran Pedley and I were joined by pollster, Rob Vance, and Asa Bennett of the Daily…

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A budget for the referendum and Osborne’s career ambitions

A budget for the referendum and Osborne’s career ambitions

The measures designed for a REMAIN outcome Perhaps the most astute post budget observation was contained in this Tweet from the political academic Tim Bale. Which voters are most likely to favour staying in the EU? Comfortable middle classes & young people. So who does best out of #Budget2016? — Tim Bale (@ProfTimBale) March 16, 2016 Perhaps more than anybody Osborne’s career is very much tied up with REMAIN winning the referendum in three months time and who could blame…

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It’s looking increasingly like Clinton versus Trump

It’s looking increasingly like Clinton versus Trump

Trump v Clinton – RCP Polling averagehttps://t.co/cEPwWzAzjh pic.twitter.com/chsHtcIIwx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 16, 2016 After last week’s embarrassment in Michigan the latest round of primaries saw Clinton win in all five states at stake and now looks like the presumptive nominee. The crucial swing state of Ohio which Sanders had been threatening to take went to Clinton by a clear margin. Trump’s road to his party’s nomination looks a little less clear following Kasich’s clear victory in his home…

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After tonight the Republican race could be down to just Trump versus Cruz

After tonight the Republican race could be down to just Trump versus Cruz

358 delegates at stake tonight in the GOP race Tonight’s a massive one in the fight for the Republican nomination. There are five big primaries with a total of 358 delegates at stake. To put that into context Trump currently leads Cruz by 460 to 370 and 1237 are required for victory. The states are:- Florida (99 delegates) North Carolina (72) Illinois (69) Ohio (66) Missouri (52). What makes this particularly interesting is that from today states can operate on…

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100 days to go till the referendum and the betting moves a bit closer

100 days to go till the referendum and the betting moves a bit closer

A week ago LEAVE was a 29% chance on Betfair. Now a 33% one pic.twitter.com/QvRQ7s0aJy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2016 https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/709666678620233728 "We Have 100 Days to Take Back Control of Our Country" – #GO's Co-Founder @VotePursglove https://t.co/O4aWW29FwU pic.twitter.com/RZlDqsJlpc — Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) March 15, 2016 Updated table of #EURef polls which use the wording on the ballot pic.twitter.com/GpgRCSRBUZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2016

Alastair Meeks says George Osborne’s star is dimming

Alastair Meeks says George Osborne’s star is dimming

What the Chancellor should do if he wants the top job The last few months have not been good for George Osborne.  When he rose to give the last budget in July, he looked like a man ready to take over the top job.  Following the general election he had been appointed First Secretary of State, recognising his place as second among equals.  He had carved out a distinct policy agenda of his own within government on the northern powerhouse. …

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