In @TheSundayTimes, @ShippersUnbound suggests Osborne may be close to abandoning his leadership ambitions #EarlyDays pic.twitter.com/UVjOD1CmZN — Tim Montgomerie ?? (@montie) March 19, 2016 How odds on top 4 in CON leadership Betfair betting have moved in past month pic.twitter.com/6Wmvh54yp8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 19, 2016
He should comfortably do well enough in May now The honeymoon is over. Two polls within a week without a Tory lead – one level-pegging from ICM and then Thursday’s from YouGov reporting Labour ahead by a point – are testament to the public disapproval of internal party divisions. They might also be testament to Labour’s invisibility at the moment, but then why intrude when your opponents are tearing themselves apart? In fact, the divisions within the Conservatives are probably…
But it’s Osborne in the firing line There are two easy assumptions that need dismissing about IDS’s resignation yesterday. Firstly, this is not a power gambit on Duncan Smith’s part; and secondly, his going is not to do with Europe. The two in fact tie together. There could be – and perhaps already is – an explanation that runs thus: IDS has really quit because he is upset by how the Remain side is conducting the European debate; in leaving…
Aylsham (Con defence) on Broadland Result: Liberal Democrat 829 (48% +17%), Conservative 654 (38% +6%), Labour 243 (14% -8%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 175 (10%) on a swing of 5.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell (Con defence) on North Kesteven Result: Lincolnshire Independent 457 (56%, no candidate in 2015), Conservative 296 (36% -31%), Liberal Democrat 69 (8%, no candidate in 2015) Lincolnshire Independent GAIN from Conservative with a majority…
Note that the table now includes polls where the actual 16 word ballot referendum question is not the one that is put. Ipsos-MORI has been using split samples to ask two questions each month. The first with its long-term question ad the second with the actual wording on the ballot. The latter produces better results to REMAIN. Also the new ORB phone poll for the Telegraph is not asking the standard question so, as can be seen, I am now…
YouGov post budget LAB 34 CON 33 LD 6 UKIP 16 Osborne's own ratings as Chancellor now back to quite strongly negative (bad job 46% good job 23%). 51% think the gvt handling economy badly — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) March 17, 2016 More detail from Times story on its YouGov poll pic.twitter.com/hXp0reb6l8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2016 The YouGov LAB lead poll follows Monday's ICM phone survey which had LAB & CON level pegging — Mike Smithson…
Aylsham (Con defence) on Broadland Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 43, Liberal Democrats 4 (Conservative majority of 39) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,588, 1,513, 1,125 (32%) Liberal Democrats 1,521, 1,065, 926 (31%) Labour 1,082 (22%) United Kingdom Independence Party 719, 658 (15%) Candidates duly nominated: Christopher Jenner (Lab), Steve Riley (Lib Dem), Hal Turkmen (Con) Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell (Con defence) on North Kesteven Result of council at…
Winner London Mayoral Election May 2016 This could be tighter than the polls Like many PBers I’m sitting on bets at 33/1 placed in March 2013 on Sadiq Khan to be next Mayor of London. This was on the basis of a tip from Henry G Manson who argued that EdM’s then appointment of the Tooting MP as Shadow Minister for London would play a big part in him securing the nomination. And so it turned out. He’s now up…