Referendum polling and betting update

Referendum polling and betting update

EU Ref polling   Google Sheets

Note that the table now includes polls where the actual 16 word ballot referendum question is not the one that is put. Ipsos-MORI has been using split samples to ask two questions each month. The first with its long-term question ad the second with the actual wording on the ballot. The latter produces better results to REMAIN.

Also the new ORB phone poll for the Telegraph is not asking the standard question so, as can be seen, I am now highlighting these in yellow in the method column.

Oxford’s Stephen Fisher, one of the architects of the GE2015 exit poll, is now producing regular EURef projections on his ElectionsEtc site. Current prediction – REMAIN ha an 87% chance.

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Mike Smithson

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