From Ohio, the Nuneaton of US politics, the GOP search for its WH2016 nominee has its 1st official event tonight
Chart from Ladbrokes
Is Jeb Bush really worth his betting favourite status?
Just as the first TV debate on the Labour leadership was in a seat that the party has to win if it is to succeed in a general election so Fox has chosen Cleveland in the key swing state of Ohio for the first TV debate of the Republican Party White House nomination race.
This is a big moment in the campaign and throse hopefuls who’ve thrown their hats into the ring will want to make the most of the TV exposure. A good sound bite that gets picked up by rest of the media could play a huge part in giving their campaigns the traction it needs.
Making a mark is going to be challenging. There are about 20 declared contenders and to cope with so many Fox is staging two events with the division based broadly on how they are polling.
Given that the race has been totally transformed by the entry of Donald Trump all eyes will be on him and the latest Bush family member, Jeb, to try his hand at national politics
The Ladbrokes chart above shows the current mismatch between the Bush polling and betting odds.
It is said that Bush, former Governor of Florida, has very much lost his touch as a result of being out of front line politics for nearly a decade. Tonight he has to prove himself.
In the 2012 race my betting strategy of always laying the GOP favourite whoever it was proved to be very profitable. I’ve yet to start that with the latest race.