Browsed by
Month: March 2015

ICM finds voters totally split by Cameron’s third term annoucement

ICM finds voters totally split by Cameron’s third term annoucement

Comments 0 Comment

The 2nd & 3rrd favourites for the CON leadership sitting either side of Cameron at PMQs pic.twitter.com/e8LuRnRgXm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 A new Guardian/ICM poll, just issued, of those planning to watch tomorrow’s C4 leaders’programme finds voters split 38-38 on Cameron’s 3rd term announcement As you’d expect Tom Clarke in the Guardian reports a partisan split in the responses. His report notes that with CON supporters, 56% to 27% believe his move was right. Among LAB supporters,…

Read More Read More

As Dave and Ed limber up for their final PMQs the last four polls have their parties level pegging

As Dave and Ed limber up for their final PMQs the last four polls have their parties level pegging

Comments 0 Comment

In vote terms this couldn’t be tighter This is extraordinary. In all the time I’ve been covering polling I cannot recall a sequence like the one we are seeing this week. Four polls on the trot all reporting LAB and CON with the same vote shares. In terms of seats level-pegging suits Ed Miliband much more than it does David Cameron. The latter needs to see his party at least three up across a range of firms to be confident…

Read More Read More

ComRes phone poll sees Labour up 3 and UKIP down 3

ComRes phone poll sees Labour up 3 and UKIP down 3

Comments 0 Comment

Another poll without a budget boost for the Tories As we’ve seen with some other pollsters, the big two are increasing their share of the vote, and UKIP falling back, as ComRes notes This represents the highest combined two-party vote share since September 2013. Individually, it is Labour’s highest share for six months and the Conservatives’ highest since November 2012. UKIP sees its vote share fall three points to 10%, the lowest in a ComRes phone poll in more than…

Read More Read More

With the campaign just about to start new BES polling suggests the the Tories will hang onto current levels of support…but

With the campaign just about to start new BES polling suggests the the Tories will hang onto current levels of support…but

Comments 0 Comment

With the formal hostilities due to start on Thursday with the Channel 4/Sky News event the British Election Study has new polling that looks at the CON record on key policies. Though BES data shows the Tories are unlikely to lose voters during the campaign, their ability to build support could be limited by discontent with some areas of policy as we enter the election campaign. BES Co-Director Professor Jane Green from The University of Manchester told a Political Studies…

Read More Read More

Given Dave’s more popular than CON his announcement should theoretically help LAB

Given Dave’s more popular than CON his announcement should theoretically help LAB

Comments 0 Comment

This from last week’s Ipsos-MORI poll What’ll Dave going at some point do to Lynton’s campaign plan? The latest Ipsos-MORI like leader like party ratings illustrate what is very common when it comes to public views of Cameron and his party: Invariably unlike the other party leaders he is a net asset securing better numbers than the Conservative party. In fact it is often quipped that what voters want is a LAB government led by David Cameron. So yesterday’s comments…

Read More Read More

Three years after being touted as Iron Lady 2.0 Liz Truss (33-1) is well placed to succeed Dave

Three years after being touted as Iron Lady 2.0 Liz Truss (33-1) is well placed to succeed Dave

Comments 0 Comment

New Statesman July 2012 Might the comprehensive school girl from Leeds make it to the top? Cameron’s comments today about how long he might remain in the job have inevitably set off speculation about who will replace him. My long term bet, at 50/1, has been Liz Truss – who was one of the first of the class of GE10 to get a place in the cabinet. That was very important stepping stone. She’s now at 33/1. I’ve long taken…

Read More Read More

LAB draws level with CON in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll – so another pollster fails to record a budget bounce

LAB draws level with CON in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll – so another pollster fails to record a budget bounce

Comments 0 Comment

This week's @LordAshcroft phone poll has CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2015 More detailed findings from @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/NrvOvXnXCv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2015 Before Xmas @LordAshcroft national poll had UKIP on 19%. Today just 12%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2015 @LordAshcroft poll ENGLAND ONLY shares CON 36 LAB 33 LD 8 UKIP 14 GN 6 So a 4.7% CON to LAB swing since GE10 on UNS = 50 LAB English gains…

Read More Read More

When computing most seats remember that every LAB gain from CON is worth double every LAB loss to the SNP

When computing most seats remember that every LAB gain from CON is worth double every LAB loss to the SNP

Comments 0 Comment

It’s all a question of simple mathematics So if LAB lost all 41 of its Scottish seats it would need a further 21 gains from CON to offset them in the race to see which party has most MPs. Quite simply a LAB gain from CON increase the red total by and decreases the blue one. A loss to the SNP simply reduces the LAB overall number.