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Month: September 2014

After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings

After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings

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CORRECTION Ladbrokes odds on next Panelbase IndyRef poll YES 3/1 NO 2/5 TIE 5/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 This might be a good way to flush out the data. If the odds change sharply or Ladbrokes suspend market then we’ll know something’s happening. Expecting the next "face-to-face" TNS-BMRB Indy Ref poll in the middle of next week. The firm has tended to have bigger NO figures. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 I’ve got a feeling that TNS might do…

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Two weeks to go in Scotland and NO edges up on the exchanges to a 77% chance

Two weeks to go in Scotland and NO edges up on the exchanges to a 77% chance

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Daily Record front page pic.twitter.com/BaRpvXdSRd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 3, 2014 The YES YouGov bounce starts to recede The widely reported news at the start of the week of the dramatic polling changes from YouGov in Scotland led inevitably to the money on the £3m Betfair markets to edge more towards YES. At one stage YES touched being a 26.5% chance but that has now started to recede with NO moving back upwards. The situation is nothing like as…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Election 2015 is a race neither Labour nor the Tories are fit to win For every Labour voter who shifts to UKIP, two or three Tories shift too Miliband’s message to…

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GE2015 polling should be put on one side so the focus for next next 2 weeks can be Scotland

GE2015 polling should be put on one side so the focus for next next 2 weeks can be Scotland

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In the last 18 days there've been just 2 IndyRef polls. Scotland decides 2 wks tomorrow. Extraordinary/annoying pic.twitter.com/z51NG5jnm2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 3, 2014 @MSmithsonPB As many polls of Clacton by-elec in last week as of indy ref in last 3 weeks. Priorities? — Rob Ford (England) (@robfordmancs) September 3, 2014 There’s no excuse for the lack of IndyRef polling A fortnight tomorrow a massive election is taking place north of the border. The turnout is expected to be…

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Unless Salmond can find a way of turning the oldies in the remaining 14 days independence will be lost

Unless Salmond can find a way of turning the oldies in the remaining 14 days independence will be lost

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Scotland’s battle is generational and the oldies will prevail We all know that the older you are the more likely it is that you’ll be on the electoral register and the greater the chance it is that you’ll actually vote. In the chart above, based on data from the latest Survation IndyRef poll, I’ve tried to show how much NO is dependent on the oldies. The chart looks at the percentage of the overall NO vote that is coming from…

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After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

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Inevitably with only 15 days left to go before Scotland decides on partition there’s been a lot of betting activity on the referendum outcome with the money going on YES. YouGov’s 6% NO lead, down from 18% in July, has given partition campaigners real hope that what they’ve been campaigning for decades might just conceivably happen. This poll, and the way it has been highlighted by the media, has all the making of a narrative changer even though all it…

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Lord Ashcroft’s Clacton poll shows UKIP 32% ahead

Lord Ashcroft’s Clacton poll shows UKIP 32% ahead

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Clacton poll by @LordAshcroft has UKIP 56% (+56%) Con 24% (-29%) Lab 16% (-9.1%) LD 2% (-10.9%) Others 2% (-75) Changes since the 2010 GE — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2014 Lord Ashcroft has published his poll on the Clacton by-election, which is to be held on the 9th of October, which is David Cameron’s birthday, like the survation poll, it shows Douglas Carswell comfortably winning for UKIP, the polling on him personally shows why he is course to become…

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August’s Politicalbetting polling average: LAB recovery continues

August’s Politicalbetting polling average: LAB recovery continues

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CON and UKIP edge up too; Others and LDs take a knock The one-time received wisdom that August polls should be ignored because summer sun and silly season made sampling and support unstable took a good hit last month when Mike noted the accuracy of ICM’s August polls in the run-up to three of the last four elections.  Of course, polls are snapshots not predictions and are bound by a political equivalent of Newton’s First Law: polling taken outside periods…

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