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Month: September 2014

If Scotland rejects independence next week it will be because of the failure to convince women

If Scotland rejects independence next week it will be because of the failure to convince women

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By more than two to one women don’t trust Salmond The big difference between the latest YouGov IndyRef poll and the one from last weekend showing a 2% YES lead has been a big switch amongst women voters. As the chart shows YES is almost maintaining a solid lead amongst men, It’s the big move amongst women voters in less than a week that have driven the big change. In the Sunday Times poll NO had just a 6% lead…

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Local By-Election Preview : September 11th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : September 11th 2014

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Castle on Carlisle (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 29, Conservatives 19, Independents 2, Liberal Democrats 2 (Labour majority of 6) Result of ward at last election (2011): Labour 539 (42%), Liberal Democrats 438 (34%), Greens 135 (10%), TUSC 90 (7%), BNP 84 (7%) Candidates duly nominated: Robert Currie (Con), Richard Hunt (Green), Lawrence Jennings (Lib Dem), Fiona Mills (UKIP), Alan Taylor (Lab) Carlisle was never really a Lib Dem bright spot even at the best…

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The “Scare tactics” seem to be working: YouGov now have NO with 4% lead

The “Scare tactics” seem to be working: YouGov now have NO with 4% lead

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How the Sun is reporting its big news IndyRef poll pic.twitter.com/3PpCRoD7tf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 NO back in the led with YouGov YES: 48% (-3) NO: 52% (+3) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 YouGov #indyref "Yes" only ahead in one age group – 25 to 39 year olds. All others – inc 16 to 24 year olds – backing Scotland to remain — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) September 11, 2014 …biggest fall with Scots women, who…

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ComRes phone poll in South of Scotland finds NO 67% to YES 33%

ComRes phone poll in South of Scotland finds NO 67% to YES 33%

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New ComRes IndyRef poll for @ITVBorder of South of Scotland finds NO 67% YES 33% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 81% of those interviewed by phone for ComRes South of Scotland IndyRef poll said they were 10/10 certain to vote — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 English born respondents in ComRes South of Scotland IndyRef phone poll divide 76% NO to 13% YES — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 65+ segment in ComRes South of Scotland…

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Last month YouGov had the best numbers for NO. Now it’s the best for YES. What’s tonight going to show?

Last month YouGov had the best numbers for NO. Now it’s the best for YES. What’s tonight going to show?

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Last Sat news of YouGov IndyRef shock poll was 1st leaked by one @rupertmurdoch . Will he do same today – perhaps only if YES ahead? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 YES prices edges up from 19% to 21% on the Betfair exchange. This could be anticipating tonight's YouGov IndyRef poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 The extraordinary feature of these closing IndyRef polls is that the firms that hitherto were most favourable to NO have…

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Betfair sees £2m of matched IndyRef bets in just 36 hours as the polls continue to move up and down

Betfair sees £2m of matched IndyRef bets in just 36 hours as the polls continue to move up and down

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The IndyRef is proving to be one of the biggest UK political betting events of all time with a colossal £2m. being matched on Betfair alone since mid-afternoon on Wednesday. This, of course, is being driven by the polls with large amounts going on as different pictures emerge. The chart shows the current (0005 Friday) and the changes since 1545 on Wednesday. I’ve never known polling to have such an influence on the betting nor have we seen betting at…

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Survation Indyref poll gives Better Together some good news

Survation Indyref poll gives Better Together some good news

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New @Survation #indyref poll has Yes 47 (nc) No 53 (nc) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 10, 2014 47.6% plan to vote No a week tomorrow with 42.4% voting Yes. 10% of people remain undecided, 53% No to 47% Yes. http://t.co/z59C5GG4I3 — Survation (@Survation) September 10, 2014 A 10% gap with women voters helped Better Together to their latest poll lead http://t.co/NKBuEN1RvY — The Daily Record (@Daily_Record) September 10, 2014 The Survation poll for the Daily Record is out now….

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It looks as though we’ll get an IndyRef poll from the firm that got the AV referendum right to within a fraction of a percent

It looks as though we’ll get an IndyRef poll from the firm that got the AV referendum right to within a fraction of a percent

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Massive polling weekend to come from @ICMResearch in advance of defining week for British constitution. Maybe even something on #indyref — Martin Boon (@martinboon) September 10, 2014 Look at the record from 2011 This is how well ICM did at the 2011 AV referendum – accurate to a fraction of a decimal point pic.twitter.com/8HYgRIIDsB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 10, 2014 Members of YouGov’s panel believe its polls YouGov finds that members of its polling panel believe its polls. pic.twitter.com/2eLKSIZjz8 — Mike…

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