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Month: August 2014

ComRes online poll sees Lab lead down one to two – But are the Tories losing their toxicity?

ComRes online poll sees Lab lead down one to two – But are the Tories losing their toxicity?

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The ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out.  Is the Tories’ toxicity no longer an issue? ComRes note “the poll’s Favourability Index finds that the Conservative Party is viewed more favourably than Labour for the first time, suggesting that the Tory brand is now seen as no more “toxic” than the Labour one.” On a net basis, the Blues and Reds are tied, as ever this is just one poll, and we’ll need to…

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Let’s end this lazy assumption that UKIP voters are just Tories on holiday

Let’s end this lazy assumption that UKIP voters are just Tories on holiday

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The numbers show that this is simply not the case You read and see this all the time both inside the Westminster bubble and out of it. Ukip voters, so the pervasive narrative goes, are simply ex-CON voters who can, if Lynton Crosby plays his cards properly, be seduced back into the fold thus providing the blues with the platform to secure an overall majority next May. Thus the following is a statement that many might find hard to comprehend…

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The Populus “Mondays good for LAB, Fridays for CON” sequence finally comes to an end

The Populus “Mondays good for LAB, Fridays for CON” sequence finally comes to an end

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It had to happen at some stage, I suppose, but today’s Populus online LAB lead of 6% brings to an end an extraordinary polling sequence – that those polls published on Mondays tended to show movement towards Labour while those coming out on Fridays moved back towards the Tories. Quite why this is hard to say. Last month Anthony Wells at UKPR ran the numbers through his computer and found that since this polling series was established in July 2013…

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David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum polls

David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum polls

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From Prof John Curtice's site – WhatScotsThink most recent #indyref poll of polls pic.twitter.com/BVdRwjNQcu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2014 How effective are the pollsters with such a one-off event? Knowledge, information and judgement: the past, present and future of effective prediction.  The problem, as far as the Scottish referendum is concerned, is that all three are badly affected by the paucity of precedent.  There have been referendums before, both in Britain and elsewhere, but all have their drawbacks…

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Local By-Election Preview: August 21st 2014

Local By-Election Preview: August 21st 2014

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Wroxham on Broadland (Lib Dem defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 34, Liberal Democrats 11, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 21) Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats 985, 829 Conservatives 741, 537 Labour 227 Greens 197 Candidates duly nominated: Malcolm Kemp (Lab), Malcolm Springall (Lib Dem), Fran Whymark (Con) Broadland, the council that seperates the urbanness of Norwich from the coastal Norfolk North, has been a right old Conservative heartland from…

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If the swing-back theorists are right the proportion of 2010 LD who’ve switched to LAB will decline

If the swing-back theorists are right the proportion of 2010 LD who’ve switched to LAB will decline

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There’s absolutely no sign of that happening yet The chart shows the monthly average proportion of all 2010 LDs in the twice-weekly Populus polls since the series started in July 2013. So far, as the chart shows, this group of switchers (“Labour’s electoral clutch” as they’ve been described) are remaining solid and are propping up the red team’s poll ratings. In yesterday’s Ashcroft polling of the marginals the level of switching was higher than in national polls and, interestingly, it…

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Take LAB majority odds at 2-1 or longer – this is now a great value bet

Take LAB majority odds at 2-1 or longer – this is now a great value bet

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Yesterday’s batch of Lord Ashcroft polls of key CON-LAB marginals is further evidence that the betting price on CON majority is far too tight and that on a LAB one too long. It is very hard looking at all the voter dynamics to make any case whatsoever for a CON majority. Time is passing quickly and there’s nothing at all from the seats that will decide this election that the Tories are going to better their 2010 performance. Rather it…

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CON hopes that UKIP returners will eventually swing their way are undermined by this Lord Ashcroft finding

CON hopes that UKIP returners will eventually swing their way are undermined by this Lord Ashcroft finding

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CON government just 2% ahead of LAB one amongst UKIP voters After the July round of Ashcroft marginals polling I highlighted the “preferred GE2015 outcome” polling which surprisingly had a CON government only 1% ahead of a LAB one. Well another month and data from different group of CON held marginals to look at and we find almost the same pattern – only the CON government preferred outcome lead is 2% and not 1%. What strikes me is that as…

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